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The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +2 114.88₽

Invest 3 187.27₽

Average return 5 302.15₽

ROI +66.3%

Chance of profit 65%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 7 541.12₽ · profit at most −2 238.97₽ (at most -29.7%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 278.38 → 601.30 ₽

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) × 6 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 1462.92 → 3671.93 ₽

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) × 3 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 1445.97 → 3267.89 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 392 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection

+2 114.88 ₽ +66.4% chance of profit 65%

expensive: AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) · 10 786.44 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 392 ₽

1× P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0787
6× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0787
3× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0076

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+2 059.70 ₽ +42.6% chance of profit 35%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2018 Inferno Collection

+2 016.83 ₽ +39.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 674.30 ₽ +30.3% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 642.68 ₽ +58.0% chance of profit 30%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616

Variant 6 The Radiant Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 398.84 ₽ +35.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 90%

1× P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0778
5× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0778
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068

How to build

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P250 | Vino Primo

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

278.38 ₽

at 278.38

Steam

×6

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

1 462.92 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

1 445.97 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 187.27 ₽ +2 114.88 (+66.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 551 ₽

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

P250 | Vino Primo

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

556.76 ₽

at 278.38

Steam

×5

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

1 219.10 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

1 445.97 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 221.83 ₽ +1 866.97 (+58.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 710 ₽

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

P250 | Vino Primo

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

835.14 ₽

at 278.38

Steam

×4

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

975.28 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

1 445.97 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 256.39 ₽ +1 619.06 (+49.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 869 ₽

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

P250 | Vino Primo

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

1 113.52 ₽

at 278.38

Steam

×3

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

731.46 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

1 445.97 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 290.95 ₽ +1 371.15 (+41.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −2 028 ₽

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

P250 | Vino Primo

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

1 391.90 ₽

at 278.38

Steam

×2

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

487.64 ₽

at 243.82

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

1 445.97 ₽

at 481.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 325.51 ₽ +1 123.24 (+33.8%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 35%
About break-even 30%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

12 404.41 ₽ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

3 800.57 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

2 823.51 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo

Factory New

1 550.53 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

SG 553 | Integrale

Factory New

6 228.05 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 331.05 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 880.96 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2018 Inferno Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1740385 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 329.04₽ · invest 3 194.04₽
profit on prices without salesat least −907 ₽ rare inputs

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074333 instead of 0.078744; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.003791 instead of 0.007651
Craft 1739174 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 308.03₽ · invest 3 141.37₽
profit on prices without salesat least −928 ₽ float out of reach rare inputs

SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074268 instead of 0.078744; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.003735 instead of 0.007651
Craft 1742008 · The Shadow Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 2 302.48₽ · invest 3 423.89₽
profit on prices without salesat least −933 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1741878 · The Shadow Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 2 287.05₽ · invest 3 249.07₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 475 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075850 instead of 0.078744; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005119 instead of 0.007651
Craft 1738626 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 246.31₽ · invest 3 269.09₽
profit on prices without salesat least −990 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077526 instead of 0.078744; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.006585 instead of 0.007651
Craft 1709816 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2 214.50₽ · invest 3 101.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 021 ₽ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075850 instead of 0.078744; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005119 instead of 0.007651

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build