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The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Falchion Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +5.50$

Invest 11.67$

Average return 17.18$

ROI +47.1%

Chance of profit 57%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 27.29$ · profit at most −10.11$ (at most -37.0%) · chance of profit at most 27%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 2.07 → 4.89 $

P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 8.06 → 19.05 $

P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 0.71 → 1.54 $

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 0.84 → 1.81 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Falchion Collection

+5.50 $ +47.2% chance of profit 57%

expensive: Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) · 35.65 $ · chance 27%

sells slowly

4× P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
4× P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
1× P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
1 more

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The 2018 Nuke Collection

+25.96 $ +310.3% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 136.13 $ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054

Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+25.74 $ +269.8% chance of profit 46%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 136.13 $ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053

Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+8.96 $ +54.3% chance of profit 44%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 111.55 $ · chance 8.0%

rare inputs

6× P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630

Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The 2018 Nuke Collection

+8.81 $ +93.3% chance of profit 36%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 111.55 $ · chance 8.0%

rare inputs

6× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651

Variant 6 The Radiant Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+7.52 $ +120.5% chance of profit 53%

expensive: Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) · 35.65 $ · chance 20%

6× P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
4× M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

2.07 $

at 0.52

Steam

×4

P250 | Exchanger

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

8.06 $

at 2.01

Steam

×1

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

0.84 $

at 0.84

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.67 $ +5.50 (+47.1%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 31%
Losing outcome 43%
About break-even 27%

at a loss

AUG | Random Access

Factory New

12.54 $ 26.67%

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden

Factory New

40.99 $ 26.67%

Steam

about break-even

MAG-7 | Core Breach

Factory New

14.00 $ 26.67%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

6.97 $ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

20.00 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

9.71 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

5.80 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

1.13 $ 4.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.89 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.09 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2018 Nuke Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1704182 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The 2018 Nuke Collection · profit 7.11$ · invest 8.57$
rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Core Breach: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074280 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): 2 pcs instead of 4; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003745 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705421 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 6.65$ · invest 6.98$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Core Breach: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074118 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 4; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003603 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1704944 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Achroma Collection · profit 6.51$ · invest 8.44$
rare inputs

AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear), P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Core Breach: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074006 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): 2 pcs instead of 4; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003505 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705576 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 5.83$ · invest 11.62$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear), P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 1705111 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 5.72$ · invest 9.14$
rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074374 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): 3 pcs instead of 4; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003828 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705423 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 5.62$ · invest 11.36$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074639 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.004059 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705225 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 5.58$ · invest 11.35$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074059 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003551 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705331 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 5.51$ · invest 10.62$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074057 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003550 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705214 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 5.51$ · invest 10.67$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 1705148 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 5.47$ · invest 9.08$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074515 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): 3 pcs instead of 4; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003951 instead of 0.003550
Craft 1705429 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 5.43$ · invest 11.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear), R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074009 instead of 0.074057; P250 | Exchanger (Factory New): float at most 0.003508 instead of 0.003550

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Falchion Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build