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The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Alpha Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Average profit +3 947.24₽

Invest 4 119.20₽

Average return 8 066.44₽

ROI +95.8%

Chance of profit 40%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 10 174.42₽ · profit at most −2 107.98₽ (at most -20.7%) · chance of profit at most 10%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 95.20 → 235.14 ₽

MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 4024.00 → 9939.28 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 055 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Alpha Collection

+3 947.24 ₽ +95.8% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 10%

profit on prices without salesat least −4 055 ₽

5× Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
5× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 2 The Inferno Collection instead of The Alpha Collection

+1 051.60 ₽ +58.8% chance of profit 25%

expensive: M4A4 | Tornado (Factory New) · 9 227.18 ₽ · chance 25%

sells slowly

5× Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
5× Souvenir MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Alpha Collection

+807.95 ₽ +309.4% chance of profit 62%

expensive: Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) · 3 352.90 ₽ · chance 12%

sells slowly

5× Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
5× Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 4 The Office Collection instead of The Alpha Collection

+19 467.45 ₽ +231.6% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New) · 93 834.50 ₽ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 342 ₽

5× Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
5× FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 5 The Office Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+10 401.50 ₽ +25.2% chance of profit 62%

expensive: Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New) · 93 834.50 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −41 206 ₽

1× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
6× FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 6 The Lake Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+5 445.84 ₽ +93.7% chance of profit 42%

expensive: Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) · 58 576.16 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 721 ₽

7× MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir MP7 | Prey

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

95.20 ₽

at 19.04

souvenirSteam

×5

MP7 | Groundwater

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

4 024.00 ₽

at 804.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 119.20 ₽ +3 947.24 (+95.8%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

AUG | Spalted Wood

Factory New

149.92 ₽ 12.50%

Steam

at a loss

Five-SeveN | Withered Vine

Factory New

312.68 ₽ 12.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

M249 | Midnight Palm

Factory New

131.07 ₽ 12.50%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Old Roots

Factory New

235.55 ₽ 12.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Sand Dune

Factory New

67 362.58 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Negev | Palm

Factory New

7 710.69 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Facets

Factory New

3 631.73 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Mosaico

Factory New

7 881.12 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams

Factory New

5 141.45 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +525.65 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 678.85 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Dust 2 Collection and The Alpha Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1710019 · The Alpha Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 4 004.29₽ · invest 4 063.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −3 999 ₽ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1704278 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Alpha Collection · profit 3 960.26₽ · invest 4 056.25₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 016 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1706559 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Alpha Collection · profit 3 957.62₽ · invest 4 089.55₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 019 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New)
Craft 1709980 · The Alpha Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 3 955.09₽ · invest 4 038.35₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 021 ₽ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1709948 · The Alpha Collection + The Ascent Collection · profit 3 948.16₽ · invest 4 039.25₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 028 ₽ rare inputs

Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1710007 · The Alpha Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 3 945.28₽ · invest 4 037.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 031 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Marsh Grass (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074592 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1709945 · The Alpha Collection + The Anubis Collection · profit 3 944.47₽ · invest 4 148.90₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 032 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Snake Pit (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074592 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1704951 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Alpha Collection · profit 3 939.39₽ · invest 4 049.70₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 037 ₽ rare inputs

P250 | Facility Draft (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1707753 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Alpha Collection · profit 3 858.35₽ · invest 4 285.10₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 165 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074257
Craft 1709992 · The Alpha Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 3 724.05₽ · invest 6 169.45₽
profit on prices without salesat least −5 647 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) instead of Souvenir MP7 | Prey (Factory New); MP7 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074809 instead of 0.074257

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Alpha Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build