The 2021 Dust 2 Collection
+ The eSports 2013 Collection
Restricted → Classified
About the craftCraft 1706504 · ways to build: 5The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+9 840.56₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».29 416.08₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.39 256.64₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+33.5%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.70%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 72 436.31₽
· profit at most −33 179.66₽
(at most -45.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) × 65% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5119774.32 → 49633.54 ₽
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) × 45% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.379641.76 → 22802.76 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −29 416 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −29 416 ₽: SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New), AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New), AWP | BOOM (Factory New), UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
profit on prices without salesat least −29 416 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
profit on prices without salesat least −24 560 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
profit on prices without salesat least −28 929 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
1× MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0740
profit on prices without salesat least −26 623 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
1× Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0745
3× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0745
6× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0040
profit on prices without salesat least −40 165 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
6× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0744
4× P250 | Splash (Factory New)buy0.0600–0.0605
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
5% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×6
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0036
(3% of this wear's listings)
19 774.32 ₽
at 3 295.72
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003620f′ (normalized) 0.009785wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 77 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 16 707.72 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×4
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0741
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
9 641.76 ₽
at 2 410.44
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074137f′ (normalized) 0.019105wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs29 416.08 ₽
+9 840.56
(+33.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414result 0.010811, 0.001081, 0.070000, 0.062973«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −32 072 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×9
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0047
(3% of this wear's listings)
29 661.48 ₽
at 3 295.72
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004701f′ (normalized) 0.012706wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 77 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 16 707.72 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×1
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0753
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
2 410.44 ₽
at 2 410.44
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075373f′ (normalized) 0.020774wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs32 071.92 ₽
+2 617.53
(+8.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414result 0.010811, 0.001081, 0.070000, 0.062973«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −41 050 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0044
(3% of this wear's listings)
3 295.72 ₽
at 3 295.72
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004449f′ (normalized) 0.012024wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 77 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 16 707.72 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×5
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0750
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
12 052.20 ₽
at 2 410.44
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075084f′ (normalized) 0.020384wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×4
P250 | Splash
Factory New
buy0.0600–0.0606
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
25 702.48 ₽
at 6 425.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.060635f′ (normalized) 0.005296wear 0.0600–0.0700on the market 8 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs41 050.40 ₽
+5 818.23
(+14.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414result 0.070000, 0.062973, 0.010811, 0.001081«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −31 187 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×8
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(3% of this wear's listings)
26 365.76 ₽
at 3 295.72
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004374f′ (normalized) 0.011824wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 77 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 16 707.72 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×2
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0749
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
4 820.88 ₽
at 2 410.44
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074999f′ (normalized) 0.020270wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs31 186.64 ₽
+5 025.20
(+16.1%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414result 0.010811, 0.001081, 0.070000, 0.062973«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −35 676 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0041
(3% of this wear's listings)
13 182.88 ₽
at 3 295.72
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004185f′ (normalized) 0.011313wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 77 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 16 707.72 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×4
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0747
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
9 641.76 ₽
at 2 410.44
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074783f′ (normalized) 0.019978wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×2
P250 | Splash
Factory New
buy0.0600–0.0605
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
12 851.24 ₽
at 6 425.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.060597f′ (normalized) 0.004983wear 0.0600–0.0700on the market 8 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs35 675.88 ₽
+6 625.56
(+18.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414result 0.070000, 0.062973, 0.010811, 0.001081«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 70%
Losing outcome 30%
in profit
SSG 08 | Death Strike
Factory New
54 119.27 ₽30.00%
price without deals
SteamSSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)net 47060.23you get 0.010811
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 36 224.25 ₽
(you get 31 499.34)) · buy orders: 391
sell on Market.CSGO: 34 876.17 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 38 241.42 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 27 351.49 ₽listings: 30
on CS.Money: ~ 26 510.33 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 26 802.43 ₽listings: 28
at a loss
worst
UMP-45 | Fade
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽30.00%
price without dealspricier variants exist
SteamUMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)net 19273.86you get 0.001081
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 19 678.44 ₽
(you get 17 111.68)) · buy orders: 757
sell on Market.CSGO: 17 328.00 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 000.00 · lots 19price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 15 338.80 ₽listings: 44
on CS.Money: ~ 15 740.54 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 15 329.38 ₽listings: 51
in profit
best
AK-47 | Red Laminate
Factory New
64 183.02 ₽20.00%
price without deals
SteamAK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)net 55811.32you get 0.070000The eSports 2013 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 46 956.12 ₽
(you get 40 831.40)) · buy orders: 597not listed on Market.CSGO right now
on CSFloat: from 35 376.80 ₽listings: 18
on CS.Money: ~ 38 736.31 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 41 264.09 ₽listings: 3
sell now to a buy order: 31 703.15 ₽
(you get 27 567.95)) · buy orders: 560
sell on Market.CSGO: 33 195.88 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 36 399.00 · lots 10
on CSFloat: from 27 488.55 ₽listings: 18
on CS.Money: ~ 32 305.10 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 28 728.02 ₽listings: 46
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+4 209.77 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+8 345.32 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Dust 2 Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
7 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
profit on prices without salesat least −16 067 ₽rare inputs
P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074137
Craft 1739404
· The Phoenix Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 9 735.41₽
· invest 12 533.70₽
profit on prices without salesat least −9 621 ₽rare inputs
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074218 instead of 0.074137
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
