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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +8 509.25₽

Invest 23 109.04₽

Average return 31 618.29₽

ROI +36.8%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 55 543.58₽ · profit at most −23 925.29₽ (at most -43.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 5 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 10240.00 → 25292.80 ₽

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 4 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 11969.04 → 28306.78 ₽

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 900.00 → 1944.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −22 486 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection

+8 509.25 ₽ +36.8% chance of profit 45%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 49 604.97 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −22 486 ₽

5× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1712
4× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+1 949.55 ₽ +35.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 8 345.22 ₽ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 3 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+1 608.46 ₽ +28.9% chance of profit 35%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
3× MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1638
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+1 534.43 ₽ +44.4% chance of profit 40%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+1 080.04 ₽ +23.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 8 345.22 ₽ · chance 5.0%

rare inputs

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048
5× USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048

Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+1 048.21 ₽ +40.6% chance of profit 40%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 8 345.22 ₽ · chance 5.0%

rare inputs

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
9× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1712

10 240.00 ₽

at 2 048.00

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

11 969.04 ₽

at 2 992.26

souvenirSteam

×1

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

900.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23 109.04 ₽ +8 509.25 (+36.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −19 771 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1686

10 240.00 ₽

at 2 048.00

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

8 976.78 ₽

at 2 992.26

souvenirSteam

×2

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

1 800.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 21 016.78 ₽ +7 780.39 (+37.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −17 056 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1666

10 240.00 ₽

at 2 048.00

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

5 984.52 ₽

at 2 992.26

souvenirSteam

×3

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

2 700.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 924.52 ₽ +7 051.53 (+37.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −14 341 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1650

10 240.00 ₽

at 2 048.00

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

2 992.26 ₽

at 2 992.26

souvenirSteam

×4

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

3 600.00 ₽

at 900.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16 832.26 ₽ +6 322.67 (+37.6%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Factory New

57 045.72 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Factory New

22 164.94 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Cold Blooded

Factory New

4 727.83 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Serum

Factory New

9 597.00 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +12.16 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6 533.53 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Arms Deal 2 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1707123 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 8 961.89₽ · invest 22 519.04₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 034 ₽ rare inputs

FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165205 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004627 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1706993 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 8 881.10₽ · invest 22 926.87₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 776 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Torque (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165922 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004846 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1707281 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 8 777.37₽ · invest 22 442.54₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 218 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.170088 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.006114 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1706894 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 8 770.52₽ · invest 22 492.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 409 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166231 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004940 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1706752 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 8 768.06₽ · invest 22 345.46₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 227 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168540 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.005642 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1707261 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 8 702.20₽ · invest 22 372.58₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 333 ₽ rare inputs

Negev | dev_texture (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166135 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004910 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1707115 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 8 656.19₽ · invest 24 052.58₽
profit on prices without salesat least −24 053 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162744 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003878 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1707067 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 8 613.21₽ · invest 22 844.71₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 612 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165828 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004817 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1707239 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 8 576.54₽ · invest 22 691.03₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 419 ₽ rare inputs

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166100 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004900 instead of 0.006455
Craft 1707378 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 8 273.64₽ · invest 23 659.04₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 722 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162744 instead of 0.171210; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003878 instead of 0.006455

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build