Crafts · The 2021 Mirage Collection
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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1706814 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +9 478.76₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 21 644.86₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 31 123.62₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +43.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 51 951.38₽ · profit at most −20 827.75₽ (at most -40.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 12288.00 → 30842.88 ₽
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 8976.78 → 20287.52 ₽
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 380.08 → 820.97 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 517 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 517 ₽: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New), MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Dead Hand Collection
+9 478.76 ₽ +43.8% chance of profit 45%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 49 604.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −21 517 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1633
  • 3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+2 383.65 ₽ +53.4% chance of profit 33%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
  • 4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
  • 5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+2 140.39 ₽ +42.7% chance of profit 93%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 705.32 ₽ +57.7% chance of profit 33%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
  • 9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 526.17 ₽ +40.2% chance of profit 93%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 90%
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 6× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0753
  • 3× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 320.78 ₽ +66.6% chance of profit 63%
expensive: M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) · 6 788.25 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
  • 8× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
  • 1× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1633
12 288.00 ₽
at 2 048.00
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163351f′ (normalized) 0.139664wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 80 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×3
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
8 976.78 ₽
at 2 992.26
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004063f′ (normalized) 0.010982wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 87 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
×1
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
380.08 ₽
at 380.08
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004063f′ (normalized) 0.004063wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 327 · good ≈ 4
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · among lots up to 632.61 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 21 644.86 ₽ +9 478.76 (+43.8%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.070000, 0.048125, 0.087500, 0.087500, 0.087500 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
in profit
best
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox
Factory New
57 045.72 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)net 49604.97 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 37 285.67 ₽ (you get 32 422.32)) · buy orders: 485 sell on Market.CSGO: 34 651.69 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 37 995.28 · lots 10 on CSFloat: from 29 551.19 ₽ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 33 730.45 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 31 087.04 ₽ listings: 103
at a loss
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)net 19273.86 you get 0.048125
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 897.19 ₽ (you get 16 432.33)) · buy orders: 445 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 170.07 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 730.35 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 14 397.42 ₽ listings: 20 on CS.Money: ~ 16 883.22 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 16 073.75 ₽ listings: 33
at a loss
AK-47 | Crane Flight
Minimal Wear
2 331.36 ₽ 3.33%
Steam AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)net 2027.27 you get 0.087500The Dead Hand Collection sells 744 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 1 780.75 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 952.58 · lots 69 on CSFloat: from 1 816.81 ₽ listings: 194 on CS.Money: ~ 2 150.02 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 828.80 ₽ listings: 360
at a loss
worst
P250 | Kintsugi
Minimal Wear
1 030.12 ₽ 3.33%
Steam P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)net 895.76 you get 0.087500The Dead Hand Collection sells 168 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 801.54 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 878.89 · lots 29 on CSFloat: from 783.77 ₽ listings: 128 on CS.Money: ~ 847.16 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 811.18 ₽ listings: 153
at a loss
P90 | Deathgaze
Minimal Wear
1 059.67 ₽ 3.33%
Steam P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)net 921.45 you get 0.087500The Dead Hand Collection sells 169 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 029.87 ₽ (you get 895.53)) · buy orders: 1870 sell on Market.CSGO: 874.35 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 958.72 · lots 39 on CSFloat: from 778.63 ₽ listings: 125 on CS.Money: ~ 878.00 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 801.76 ₽ listings: 163
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