Crafts · The 2021 Mirage Collection
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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Falchion Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1706859 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +9 349.89₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 21 761.43₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 31 111.32₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +43.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 52 203.17₽ · profit at most −21 091.85₽ (at most -40.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 12288.00 → 30842.88 ₽
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 8976.78 → 20287.52 ₽
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 496.65 → 1072.76 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 646 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 646 ₽: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New), MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Falchion Collection
+9 349.89 ₽ +43.0% chance of profit 45%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 49 604.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −21 646 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1629
  • 3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%
sells slowly
  • 4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
  • 8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 701.97 ₽ +97.5% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly
  • 6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
  • 4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
Variant 6 The Graphic Design Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 644.72 ₽ +45.7% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New) · 17 804.34 ₽ · chance 15%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 7× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
  • 3× CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1629
12 288.00 ₽
at 2 048.00
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162988f′ (normalized) 0.139173wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 80 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 158 · from 3 411.76 ₽ (float 0.1509) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
8 976.78 ₽
at 2 992.26
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003953f′ (normalized) 0.010683wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 87 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 87 · from 4 554.44 ₽ (float 0.0012) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
496.65 ₽
at 496.65
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003953f′ (normalized) 0.007906wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 178 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 1 008.10 ₽ · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 256 · from 7 657.84 ₽ (float 0.0001) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 21 761.43 ₽ +9 349.89 (+43.0%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.070000, 0.048125, 0.087500, 0.028000, 0.087500 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
in profit
best
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox
Factory New
57 045.72 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)net 49604.97 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 37 285.67 ₽ (you get 32 422.32)) · buy orders: 485 sell on Market.CSGO: 34 651.69 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 37 995.28 · lots 10 on CSFloat: from 29 551.19 ₽ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 33 730.45 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 31 087.04 ₽ listings: 103
at a loss
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)net 19273.86 you get 0.048125
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 897.19 ₽ (you get 16 432.33)) · buy orders: 445 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 170.07 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 730.35 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 14 397.42 ₽ listings: 20 on CS.Money: ~ 16 883.22 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 16 073.75 ₽ listings: 33
at a loss
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
822.81 ₽ 3.33%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)net 715.49 you get 0.087500The Falchion Collection sells 32 a week sell now to a buy order: 783.16 ₽ (you get 681.00)) · buy orders: 1955 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 616.74 ₽ listings: 33 on CS.Money: ~ 654.43 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 688.69 ₽ listings: 39
at a loss
MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 385.76 ₽ 3.33%
Steam MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)net 2074.57 you get 0.028000The Falchion Collection sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 380.08 ₽ (you get 2 069.63)) · buy orders: 2273 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 987.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 179.62 · lots 43 on CSFloat: from 1 884.48 ₽ listings: 91 on CS.Money: ~ 1 960.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 879.34 ₽ listings: 112
at a loss
worst
SG 553 | Cyrex
Minimal Wear
788.11 ₽ 3.33%
Steam SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)net 685.31 you get 0.087500The Falchion Collection sells 56 a week sell now to a buy order: 743.00 ₽ (you get 646.08)) · buy orders: 4267 sell on Market.CSGO: 673.48 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 738.47 · lots 23 on CSFloat: from 593.61 ₽ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 619.31 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 651.86 ₽ listings: 63
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