Crafts · The 2021 Mirage Collection
₽
LanguageRU
to all crafts

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1707351 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +721.41₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 708.55₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 429.96₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +42.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 55%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 4 273.75₽ · profit at most −1 843.80₽ (at most -43.1%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 286.67 → 619.21 ₽
G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 65.40 → 141.26 ₽
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 8 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 1356.48 → 3513.28 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −903 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −903 ₽: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New), Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear), AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+721.41 ₽ +42.2% chance of profit 55%
expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%
profit on prices without salesat least −903 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 6 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0757
  • 1× G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0757
  • 8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0757
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+466.36 ₽ +66.5% chance of profit 28%
expensive: Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New) · 3 392.68 ₽ · chance 18%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 10 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
  • 7× Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
  • 2× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
Variant 3 The Mirage Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+30 497.57 ₽ +152.7% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 873 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× M249 | Humidor (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 4 The Overpass Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+6 757.21 ₽ +75.4% chance of profit 90%
expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 863 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× M249 | Humidor (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
  • 9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+3 665.64 ₽ +151.1% chance of profit 40%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 833 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× M249 | Humidor (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+2 682.03 ₽ +64.7% chance of profit 80%
expensive: Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 9 803.48 ₽ · chance 23%
profit on prices without salesat least −3 849 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 3× M249 | Humidor (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
  • 7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0757
286.67 ₽
at 286.67
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075743f′ (normalized) 0.137715wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 100 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×1
G3SG1 | Murky
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0757
65.40 ₽
at 65.40
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075743f′ (normalized) 0.302974wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 63 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×8
UMP-45 | Delusion
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0757
1 356.48 ₽
at 169.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075743f′ (normalized) 0.054288wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 79 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 1 708.55 ₽ +721.41 (+42.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.040125, 0.070000, 0.059500, 0.087500, 0.043750, 0.124750, 0.032375 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 7 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 55%
  • Losing outcome 45%
at a loss
Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
858.36 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)net 746.40 you get 0.040125The Vanguard Collection sells 64 a week sell now to a buy order: 859.66 ₽ (you get 747.53)) · buy orders: 14620 sell on Market.CSGO: 655.26 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 718.49 · lots 83 on CSFloat: from 598.75 ₽ listings: 435 on CS.Money: ~ 641.58 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 636.44 ₽ listings: 280
in profit
best
M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)net 6288.88 you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 446.96 ₽ (you get 5 606.05)) · buy orders: 5075 sell on Market.CSGO: 5 459.36 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 5 986.15 · lots 39 on CSFloat: from 5 139.49 ₽ listings: 59 on CS.Money: ~ 5 554.07 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 5 386.18 ₽ listings: 158
in profit
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%
Steam M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)net 2169.17 you get 0.059500The Vanguard Collection sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 485.27 ₽ (you get 2 161.10)) · buy orders: 4448 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 099.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 302.40 · lots 57 on CSFloat: from 2 082.35 ₽ listings: 186 on CS.Money: ~ 2 108.90 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 060.08 ₽ listings: 211
at a loss
worst
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Minimal Wear
257.11 ₽ 22.50%
Steam Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)net 223.57 you get 0.087500The Vanguard Collection sells 20 a week sell now to a buy order: 213.24 ₽ (you get 185.42)) · buy orders: 2895 sell on Market.CSGO: 182.12 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 199.70 · lots 31 on CSFloat: from 176.46 ₽ listings: 18 on CS.Money: ~ 191.02 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 183.31 ₽ listings: 61
in profit
AUG | Sand Storm
Factory New
3 598.72 ₽ 3.33%
price without deals
Steam AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)net 3129.32 you get 0.043750
by lot · 1 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 3 197.66 ₽ (you get 2 780.57)) · buy orders: 5036 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 736.00 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 3 000.00 · lots 21 on CSFloat: from 2 484.09 ₽ listings: 37 on CS.Money: ~ 2 618.57 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 744.49 ₽ listings: 57
in profit
Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT
Minimal Wear
3 621.36 ₽ 3.33%
price without deals
Steam Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)net 3149.01 you get 0.124750
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 3 361.18 ₽ (you get 2 922.76)) · buy orders: 1105 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 853.79 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 3 129.16 · lots 11 on CSFloat: from 2 869.55 ₽ listings: 27 on CS.Money: ~ 2 787.32 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 801.02 ₽ listings: 49
in profit
XM1014 | Elegant Vines
Factory New
3 428.39 ₽ 3.33%
Steam XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New)net 2981.21 you get 0.032375 sells 4 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 950.00 ₽ (you get 2 565.21)) · buy orders: 1152 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 497.79 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 738.81 · lots 11 on CSFloat: from 2 395.00 ₽ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 2 604.01 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 480.66 ₽ listings: 45
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites Proven in practice How crafts work