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Crafts · The 2021 Train Collection

₸≈

The 2021 Train Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +3 610.36₸

Invest 48 996.31₸

Average return 52 606.67₸

ROI +7.4%

Chance of profit 92%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 114 420.75₸ · profit at most −61 814.08₸ (at most -54.0%) · chance of profit at most 2%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

FAMAS | Meltdown (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 17210.16 → 37173.95 ₸

P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) × 7 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 20586.55 → 52495.70 ₸

P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) × 2 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 11199.60 → 24751.11 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

+3 610.38 ₸ +7.4% chance of profit 92%

expensive: M4A4 | The Coalition (Minimal Wear) · 204 030.40 ₸ · chance 1.7%

rare inputs

1× FAMAS | Meltdown (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
7× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1657
2× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754

Variant 2 The Prisma Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+19 434.24 ₸ +65.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 52 724.87 ₸ · chance 45%

float out of reach

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
1× XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618

Variant 3 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+18 911.07 ₸ +60.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 52 724.87 ₸ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
1× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+18 715.09 ₸ +58.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 52 724.87 ₸ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1649
1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 5 The Fracture Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+18 335.77 ₸ +61.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 52 724.87 ₸ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1656
1× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047

Variant 6 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+17 857.53 ₸ +59.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 52 724.87 ₸ · chance 45%

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1658
1× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

FAMAS | Meltdown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

17 210.16 ₸

at 17 210.16

Steam

×7

P90 | Deathgaze

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1657

20 586.55 ₸

at 2 940.94

Steam

×2

P250 | Kintsugi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

11 199.60 ₸

at 5 599.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 48 996.31 ₸ +3 610.36 (+7.4%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 8%
About break-even 45%

in profit

AWP | Queen's Gambit

Minimal Wear

60 633.63 ₸ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Minimal Wear

56 925.59 ₸ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Emerald)

Minimal Wear

44 225.59 ₸ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 1)

Minimal Wear

44 225.59 ₸ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 2)

Minimal Wear

44 225.59 ₸ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 3)

Minimal Wear

44 225.59 ₸ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 4)

Minimal Wear

44 225.59 ₸ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | The Coalition

Minimal Wear

234 634.98 ₸ 1.67%

price without deals

Steam

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -2 091.87 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 339.87 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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