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The 2021 Train Collection + The Overpass Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +8 625.05₽

Invest 28 850.18₽

Average return 37 475.23₽

ROI +29.9%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 70 070.33₽ · profit at most −32 595.10₽ (at most -46.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1339.77 → 2893.90 ₽

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 4 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 7374.16 → 17439.89 ₽

AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) × 5 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 20136.25 → 49736.54 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −28 607 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Overpass Collection

+8 625.05 ₽ +29.9% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) · 40 871.70 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −28 607 ₽

1× Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0052
4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1671
5× AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0759

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+1 831.08 ₽ +33.8% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1684
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+1 648.16 ₽ +48.3% chance of profit 40%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
1× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+1 577.65 ₽ +26.4% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0762

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+1 330.61 ₽ +30.3% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) · 7 291.30 ₽ · chance 3.3%

outcome without sales

1× P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
5× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+1 103.45 ₽ +42.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) · 7 291.30 ₽ · chance 3.3%

outcome without sales

1× CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
3× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

1 339.77 ₽

at 1 339.77

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1671

7 374.16 ₽

at 1 843.54

souvenirSteam

×5

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

20 136.25 ₽

at 4 027.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 28 850.18 ₽ +8 625.05 (+29.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −16 885 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

6 698.85 ₽

at 1 339.77

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1706

7 374.16 ₽

at 1 843.54

souvenirSteam

×1

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0771

4 027.25 ₽

at 4 027.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 100.26 ₽ +5 789.06 (+32.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −19 816 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

5 359.08 ₽

at 1 339.77

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1698

7 374.16 ₽

at 1 843.54

souvenirSteam

×2

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0769

8 054.50 ₽

at 4 027.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20 787.74 ₽ +6 498.06 (+31.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −22 746 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

4 019.31 ₽

at 1 339.77

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1690

7 374.16 ₽

at 1 843.54

souvenirSteam

×3

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

12 081.75 ₽

at 4 027.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23 475.22 ₽ +7 207.05 (+30.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −25 677 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

2 679.54 ₽

at 1 339.77

Steam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1681

7 374.16 ₽

at 1 843.54

souvenirSteam

×4

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

16 109.00 ₽

at 4 027.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 26 162.70 ₽ +7 916.05 (+30.3%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Master Piece

Factory New

47 002.46 ₽ 90.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Meltdown

Factory New

7 943.13 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Factory New

7 500.81 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Whiteout

Minimal Wear

8 385.00 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -1 614.25 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7 574.59 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 482 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 488 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 565 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 685 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 506 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 627 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 528 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 554 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 557 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 702 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 582 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 674 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 595 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 662 ₽ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −27 597 ₽ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167938 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076239 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 618 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167882 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076219 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 704 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167746 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076172 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 637 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168107 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076298 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 819 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167448 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076069 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 747 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167882 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076219 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1709711 · The Achroma Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 9 108.89₽ · invest 28 027.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 676 ₽ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167819 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076197 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1726968 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 9 080.42₽ · invest 27 729.66₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 704 ₽ rare inputs

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)
Craft 1713858 · The Ascent Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 9 078.73₽ · invest 28 006.87₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 706 ₽ rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167662 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076143 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1733938 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 9 065.23₽ · invest 28 995.18₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 105 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167605 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076123 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1738918 · The Overpass Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 9 064.23₽ · invest 27 992.40₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 720 ₽ rare inputs

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167697 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076155 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 991 ₽ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161901 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074139 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1711429 · The Anubis Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 9 026.87₽ · invest 29 164.46₽
profit on prices without salesat least −29 164 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Sobek's Bite (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168107 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076298 instead of 0.075960
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profit on prices without salesat least −27 890 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166099 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075599 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1712573 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 8 996.94₽ · invest 28 410.41₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 788 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164180 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074932 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1712146 · The Arabesque Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 8 992.83₽ · invest 28 763.83₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 764 ₽ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168107 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076298 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1738985 · The Overpass Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8 914.82₽ · invest 28 126.13₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 126 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168107 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076298 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1738956 · The Overpass Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 8 909.29₽ · invest 28 637.66₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 875 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168107 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076298 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1712963 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 8 850.96₽ · invest 28 233.04₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 066 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165731 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075471 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1739008 · The Overpass Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 8 836.69₽ · invest 28 564.35₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 313 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167448 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076069 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1738922 · The Overpass Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 8 821.16₽ · invest 28 535.54₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 490 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167819 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076197 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1734337 · The Harlequin Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 8 684.25₽ · invest 28 298.54₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 100 ₽ rare inputs

USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167819 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076197 instead of 0.075960
Craft 1704674 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 8 509.62₽ · invest 28 613.11₽
profit on prices without salesat least −28 546 ₽ rare inputs

MP7 | Fade (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166264 instead of 0.167136; AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075657 instead of 0.075960

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build