The 2021 Vertigo Collection
+ The Fever Collection
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1708289 · ways to build: 5The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+15 246.86₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».36 379.26₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.51 626.12₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+41.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.40%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 85 548.32₽
· profit at most −33 922.20₽
(at most -39.6%) · chance of profit at most 40%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) × 45% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.3730842.76 → 72943.13 ₽
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) × 45% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.372384.04 → 5638.25 ₽
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) × 25% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.213152.46 → 6966.94 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −33 249 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −33 249 ₽: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
8× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
Variant 3The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Fever Collection
marketplace pricefloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1699
8× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0060
Variant 4The Fracture Collection instead of The Fever Collection
sells slowlyfloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 5 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
5% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1623
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
30 842.76 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162390f′ (normalized) 0.298804wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×4
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0743
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 384.04 ₽
at 596.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074309f′ (normalized) 0.074309wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 213 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
×2
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0037
(1% of this wear's listings)
3 152.46 ₽
at 1 576.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003770f′ (normalized) 0.003770wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 126 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 8 836.79 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs36 379.26 ₽
+15 246.86
(+41.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.149999900result 0.120000, 0.150000, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −15 670 ₽
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1674
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
15 421.38 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167432f′ (normalized) 0.308691wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×3
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1674
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
1 442.94 ₽
at 480.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167432f′ (normalized) 0.167432wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 293 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 700.00 ₽ · little data: 2.0 d.
×5
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0760
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 980.05 ₽
at 596.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076063f′ (normalized) 0.076063wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 213 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs19 844.37 ₽
+8 577.38
(+43.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.149999900result 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.120000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −60 059 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1659
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
30 842.76 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165987f′ (normalized) 0.305858wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×2
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0755
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
24 998.00 ₽
at 12 499.00
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075560f′ (normalized) 0.128550wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 4 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×4
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0048
(1% of this wear's listings)
6 304.92 ₽
at 1 576.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004865f′ (normalized) 0.004865wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 126 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 8 836.79 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs62 145.68 ₽
+12 684.81
(+20.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.149999900result 0.120000, 0.150000, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −46 654 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1642
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
30 842.76 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164240f′ (normalized) 0.302432wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×1
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0749
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
12 499.00 ₽
at 12 499.00
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074953f′ (normalized) 0.127359wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 4 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×2
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0749
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 192.02 ₽
at 596.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074953f′ (normalized) 0.074953wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 213 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
×3
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(1% of this wear's listings)
4 728.69 ₽
at 1 576.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004334f′ (normalized) 0.004334wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 126 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 8 836.79 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs49 262.47 ₽
+13 965.84
(+28.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.149999900result 0.120000, 0.150000, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −75 311 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1642
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
23 132.07 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164203f′ (normalized) 0.302359wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×4
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0749
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
49 996.00 ₽
at 12 499.00
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074940f′ (normalized) 0.127333wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 4 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×1
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0749
(0% of this wear's listings)
596.01 ₽
at 596.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074940f′ (normalized) 0.074940wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 213 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
×2
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(1% of this wear's listings)
3 152.46 ₽
at 1 576.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004322f′ (normalized) 0.004322wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 126 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 8 836.79 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs76 876.54 ₽
+9 556.14
(+12.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.149999900result 0.120000, 0.150000, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
3 outcomes
Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger
Minimal Wear
139 425.12 ₽40.00%
price without deals
SteamM4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)net 121239.23you get 0.120000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 70 313.21 ₽
(you get 61 141.92)) · buy orders: 221
at a loss
AWP | Printstream
Minimal Wear
6 767.91 ₽30.00%
SteamAWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)net 5885.14you get 0.150000The Fever Collectionsells 220 a weeksell now to a buy order: 6 522.51 ₽
(you get 5 671.74)) · buy orders: 2679
at a loss
worst
FAMAS | Bad Trip
Minimal Wear
5 232.06 ₽30.00%
SteamFAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)net 4549.62you get 0.150000The Fever Collectionsells 192 a weeksell now to a buy order: 4 831.88 ₽
(you get 4 201.63)) · buy orders: 3019
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+13 503.06 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+14 362.78 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The Fever Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
16 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1708727
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 16 955.72₽
· invest 36 843.32₽
profit on prices without salesat least −31 540 ₽rare inputs
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested), Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163706 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708565
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 16 246.99₽
· invest 34 664.94₽
profit on prices without salesat least −32 249 ₽rare inputs
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear), Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168040 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708855
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 16 181.50₽
· invest 35 059.10₽
profit on prices without salesat least −32 314 ₽rare inputs
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear), AWP | Duality (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162201 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708384
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 15 867.30₽
· invest 39 323.04₽
profit on prices without salesat least −32 628 ₽rare inputs
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166658 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708967
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 14 711.90₽
· invest 36 395.88₽
profit on prices without salesat least −33 784 ₽rare inputs
MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear), XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162305 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708171
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 14 656.27₽
· invest 36 674.58₽
profit on prices without salesat least −33 839 ₽rare inputs
UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163983 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708994
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 14 274.19₽
· invest 41 001.28₽
profit on prices without salesat least −34 222 ₽rare inputs
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear), PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)
Craft 1708336
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 14 239.35₽
· invest 51 213.42₽
profit on prices without salesat least −49 260 ₽rare inputs
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear), P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); M4A1-S | Imminent Danger: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 4; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164887 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708081
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 14 191.03₽
· invest 41 859.70₽
profit on prices without salesat least −38 118 ₽rare inputs
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested), UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166386 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708100
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 14 187.89₽
· invest 53 824.13₽
profit on prices without salesat least −49 311 ₽rare inputs
P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear), P250 | Muertos (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); M4A1-S | Imminent Danger: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 4; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167039 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708968
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 13 940.40₽
· invest 50 912.89₽
profit on prices without salesat least −49 559 ₽rare inputs
XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear), XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); M4A1-S | Imminent Danger: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 4; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163208 instead of 0.162390
Craft 1708776
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 12 827.72₽
· invest 28 482.94₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 239 ₽rare inputs
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 4; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163495 instead of 0.162390
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
