The 2021 Vertigo Collection
+ The eSports 2013 Collection
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1709190 · ways to build: 3The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+21 465.48₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».74 489.62₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.95 955.10₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+28.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.90%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 193 513.80₽
· profit at most −97 558.69₽
(at most -50.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) × 97% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.6369396.21 → 182512.03 ₽
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) × 17% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.165093.41 → 11001.77 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −73 783 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −73 783 ₽: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
8× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1640
Variant 3The Kilowatt Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection
marketplace pricefloat out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1699
8× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0060
Variant 4The Fracture Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection
marketplace pricesells slowly40% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1616
How to build
Ways to build
3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×9
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1670
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
69 396.21 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167078f′ (normalized) 0.307996wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 10 316.66 ₽ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
AK-47 | Red Laminate
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1670
(10% of this wear's listings)
5 093.41 ₽
at 5 093.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167078f′ (normalized) 0.144700wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 130 · good ≈ 13
on the market with this float, usually ~14,
new ~1.01 per day, cheapest usually 8 051.03 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 20 of 203 · from 3 828.92 ₽ (float 0.1544) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs74 489.62 ₽
+21 465.48
(+28.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.291666567result 0.233333, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −70 459 ₽
!
11% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×8
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1759
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
61 685.52 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.175958f′ (normalized) 0.325408wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 10 316.66 ₽ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
AK-47 | Red Laminate
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1759
(13% of this wear's listings)
10 186.82 ₽
at 5 093.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.175958f′ (normalized) 0.156700wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 130 · good ≈ 16
on the market with this float, usually ~18,
new ~1.01 per day, cheapest usually 8 051.03 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 30 of 203 · from 3 828.92 ₽ (float 0.1544) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs71 872.34 ₽
+14 206.30
(+19.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.291666567result 0.233333, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −67 058 ₽
!
8% of lots fitcollecting: no data
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×7
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1689
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
53 974.83 ₽
at 7 710.69
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.168968f′ (normalized) 0.311703wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 9 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 20 · from 10 316.66 ₽ (float 0.1570) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Lis-Skins: suitable 13 of 26 · from 4 793.43 ₽ (float 0.3841) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
AK-47 | Red Laminate
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1689
(10% of this wear's listings)
10 186.82 ₽
at 5 093.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.168968f′ (normalized) 0.147254wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 130 · good ≈ 14
on the market with this float, usually ~14,
new ~1.01 per day, cheapest usually 8 051.03 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 21 of 203 · from 3 828.92 ₽ (float 0.1544) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs69 178.43 ₽
+7 023.75
(+10.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.291666567result 0.233333, 0.150000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
2 outcomes
Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger
Field-Tested
121 706.30 ₽90.00%
price without deals
SteamM4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)net 105831.57you get 0.233333
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 61 611.43 ₽
(you get 53 575.15)) · buy orders: 218
sell on Market.CSGO: 53 801.61 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 58 993.00 · lots 3
on CSFloat: from 50 262.47 ₽listings: 20
on CS.Money: ~ 59 153.78 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 55 906.48 ₽listings: 27
at a loss
worst
P90 | Death by Kitty
Minimal Wear
8 126.99 ₽10.00%
SteamP90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)net 7066.95you get 0.150000The eSports 2013 Collectionsells 1 a weeksell now to a buy order: 8 448.37 ₽
(you get 7 346.40)) · buy orders: 523
sell on Market.CSGO: 6 923.25 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 7 591.29 · lots 24
on CSFloat: from 6 908.33 ₽listings: 42
on CS.Money: ~ 7 154.17 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 6 910.90 ₽listings: 69
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+6 155.82 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+20 793.74 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Vertigo Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
5 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1707784
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Ancient Collection · profit 23 074.65₽
· invest 79 242.21₽
profit on prices without salesat least −79 242 ₽rare inputs
Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) instead of AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.193886 instead of 0.167078
Craft 1706533
· The 2021 Mirage Collection + The 2021 Vertigo Collection · profit 21 966.71₽
· invest 82 965.55₽
profit on prices without salesat least −82 966 ₽rare inputs
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) instead of AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.237824 instead of 0.167078
profit on prices without salesat least −73 358 ₽rare inputs
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) instead of AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.256259 instead of 0.167078
profit on prices without salesat least −87 430 ₽rare inputs
UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) instead of AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.227205 instead of 0.167078
Craft 1709189
· The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 21 542.11₽
· invest 74 412.99₽
profit on prices without salesat least −74 413 ₽rare inputs
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Well-Worn) instead of AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested); P90 | Death by Kitty: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.252278 instead of 0.167078
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
