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The Ancient Collection + The Arms Deal Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +3 420.67₽

Invest 31 511.27₽

Average return 34 931.94₽

ROI +10.9%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 74 939.17₽ · profit at most −40 007.23₽ (at most -53.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) × 3 13% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 5910.81 → 13358.43 ₽

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) × 6 13% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 17953.56 → 45063.44 ₽

USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) × 1 13% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 7646.90 → 16517.30 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −30 827 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Ancient Collection + The Arms Deal Collection

+3 420.67 ₽ +10.9% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 45 314.68 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −30 827 ₽

3× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0804
6× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0091
1× USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) buy 0.1000–0.1065

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+15 032.42 ₽ +55.6% chance of profit 75%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 55 811.32 ₽ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −27 014 ₽

5× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
5× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+12 441.45 ₽ +49.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 45 314.68 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −25 328 ₽

6× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068
4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1725

Variant 4 only The Ancient Collection

+8 844.19 ₽ +32.9% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 45 314.68 ₽ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −26 857 ₽

3× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0815
7× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0100

Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+8 807.31 ₽ +41.3% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 45 314.68 ₽ · chance 40%

profit on prices without salesat least −20 779 ₽

4× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
4× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
2× MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 6 The Fever Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+8 733.39 ₽ +43.3% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 45 314.68 ₽ · chance 40%

profit on prices without salesat least −19 827 ₽

4× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
4× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
2× Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

How to build

13% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 13% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0804

5 910.81 ₽

at 1 970.27

souvenirSteam

×6

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0091

17 953.56 ₽

at 2 992.26

souvenirSteam

×1

USP-S | Dark Water

Minimal Wear

buy 0.1000–0.1065

7 646.90 ₽

at 7 646.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 31 511.27 ₽ +3 420.67 (+10.9%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Panthera onca

Factory New

52 111.88 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Run and Hide

Factory New

30 000.00 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Case Hardened

Factory New

48 691.95 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic

Factory New

15 735.71 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -1 776.95 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +836.35 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Ancient Collection and The Arms Deal Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Ancient Collection + The Arms Deal Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build