Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1710192 · ways to build: 4The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+17 596.88₸
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».272 044.50₸
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.289 641.38₸
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+6.5%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.40%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 648 303.53₸
· profit at most −358 662.20₸
(at most -55.3%) · chance of profit at most 40%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) × 46% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.37238125.13 → 563165.94 ₸
P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) × 66% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5133919.37 → 85137.61 ₸
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 722 ₸Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 722 ₸: AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)
!
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 40.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -241 856.80 ₸.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
Variant 1 this oneThe Ancient Collection + The CS20 Collection
+17 596.86 ₸+6.5%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
profit on prices without salesat least −4 722 ₸marketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1638
6× P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0042
Variant 2The Kilowatt Collection instead of The CS20 Collection
+22 892.12 ₸+8.8%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
6× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0045
Variant 3The Fever Collection instead of The Ancient Collection
Variant 4The Fracture Collection instead of The CS20 Collection
+19 798.75 ₸+7.7%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1630
Variant 6The Fever Collection instead of The CS20 Collection
+16 099.99 ₸+16.4%chance of profit 10%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 10%
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
How to build
Ways to build
4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1638
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
238 125.13 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163881f′ (normalized) 0.163881wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×6
P90 | Nostalgia
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0042
(1% of this wear's listings)
33 919.37 ₸
at 5 653.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004224f′ (normalized) 0.007412wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 82 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 55 172.81 ₸ · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs272 044.50 ₸
+17 596.88
(+6.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.058300, 0.035000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −11 872 ₸
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1638
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
178 593.85 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163881f′ (normalized) 0.163881wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×1
MP9 | Hydra
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1638
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 129.39 ₸
at 3 129.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163881f′ (normalized) 0.163881wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 128 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×6
P90 | Nostalgia
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0042
(1% of this wear's listings)
33 919.37 ₸
at 5 653.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004224f′ (normalized) 0.007412wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 82 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 55 172.81 ₸ · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs215 642.61 ₸
+14 166.64
(+6.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.058300, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −16 470 ₸
!
6% of lots fitcollecting: no data
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×1
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1630
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
59 531.28 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163049f′ (normalized) 0.163049wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×8
P90 | Nostalgia
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0039
(1% of this wear's listings)
45 225.82 ₸
at 5 653.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003971f′ (normalized) 0.006967wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 82 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 55 172.81 ₸ · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs156 688.55 ₸
+13 288.51
(+8.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.058300, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −23 620 ₸
!
6% of lots fitcollecting: no data
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×1
MP9 | Hydra
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1630
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 129.39 ₸
at 3 129.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163049f′ (normalized) 0.163049wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 128 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×8
P90 | Nostalgia
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0039
(1% of this wear's listings)
45 225.82 ₸
at 5 653.23
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003971f′ (normalized) 0.006967wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 82 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 55 172.81 ₸ · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs100 286.65 ₸
+9 858.27
(+9.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.058300, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
3 outcomes
Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle
Factory New
661 871.64 ₸40.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamM4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)net 648634.18you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 661 871.64 ₸listings 26 · you get 648 634.18 ₸ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 909 071.06 ₸
(you get 790 496.53)) · buy orders: 302
at a loss
AWP | Wildfire
Factory New
85 555.50 ₸30.00%
price without deals
SteamAWP | Wildfire (Factory New)net 74396.09you get 0.058300The CS20 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 81 493.81 ₸
(you get 70 864.16)) · buy orders: 1635
at a loss
worst
FAMAS | Commemoration
Factory New
30 163.96 ₸30.00%
SteamFAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)net 26229.55you get 0.035000The CS20 Collectionsells 26 a weeksell now to a buy order: 29 741.85 ₸
(you get 25 862.45)) · buy orders: 4570
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+13 625.91 ₸a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+16 997.13 ₸historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Ancient Collection and The CS20 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
1 craft almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1710344
· The Ancient Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 19 798.75₸
· invest 257 423.00₸
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricerare inputs
XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New); P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163068 instead of 0.163881
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
