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The Ancient Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +6 495.46₽

Invest 23 021.36₽

Average return 29 516.82₽

ROI +28.2%

Chance of profit 10%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 52 839.71₽ · profit at most −23 322.89₽ (at most -44.1%) · chance of profit at most 10%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 11286.90 → 24379.70 ₽

P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 7431.90 → 18951.35 ₽

P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 4302.56 → 9508.66 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −2 615 ₽

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 10.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -5 802.40 ₽.

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Ancient Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

+6 495.46 ₽ +28.2% chance of profit 10%

expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) · 122 978.52 ₽ · chance 10%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 615 ₽

1× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
7× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0751
2× P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 2 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

+4 340.26 ₽ +8.8% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) · 122 978.52 ₽ · chance 40%

продажа ненадёжна

4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
6× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 3 The Fracture Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

+3 753.77 ₽ +7.7% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) · 122 978.52 ₽ · chance 40%

продажа ненадёжна

4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+3 684.66 ₽ +65.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

float out of reach

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
1× XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618

Variant 5 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+3 585.47 ₽ +60.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
1× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630

Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+3 548.31 ₽ +58.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1649
1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P90 | Run and Hide

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

11 286.90 ₽

at 11 286.90

Steam

×7

P250 | Kintsugi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

7 431.90 ₽

at 1 061.70

Steam

×2

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

4 302.56 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23 021.36 ₽ +6 495.46 (+28.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −3 623 ₽

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

P90 | Run and Hide

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1760

22 573.80 ₽

at 11 286.90

Steam

×4

P250 | Kintsugi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0790

4 246.80 ₽

at 1 061.70

Steam

×4

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0079

8 605.12 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 35 425.72 ₽ +4 475.73 (+12.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −3 541 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

P90 | Run and Hide

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1710

33 860.70 ₽

at 11 286.90

Steam

×2

P250 | Kintsugi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

2 123.40 ₽

at 1 061.70

Steam

×5

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

10 756.40 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 46 740.50 ₽ +3 545.58 (+7.6%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 10%
Losing outcome 90%

at a loss

AWP | Queen's Gambit

Factory New

23 282.87 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

20 721.15 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle

Factory New

125 488.29 ₽ 10.00%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4 523.46 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6 292.59 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Ancient Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Ancient Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build