The Ancient Collection
+ The Operation Riptide Collection
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1710572 · ways to build: 3The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+4 175.49₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».44 940.99₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.49 116.48₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+9.3%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 107 612.16₽
· profit at most −58 495.68₽
(at most -54.4%) · chance of profit at most 10%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) × 16% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.1611286.90 → 24379.70 ₽
MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested) × 36% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.264957.23 → 11203.34 ₽
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New) × 66% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5128696.86 → 72029.12 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −32 643 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −32 643 ₽: AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New), Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)
!
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 10.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -8 122.36 ₽.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
Variant 1 this oneThe Ancient Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection
+4 175.49 ₽+9.3%chance of profit 55%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 10%
profit on prices without salesat least −32 643 ₽marketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1641
Variant 2The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Operation Riptide Collection
+4 340.26 ₽+8.8%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
6× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0045
Variant 3The Fracture Collection instead of The Operation Riptide Collection
+3 753.77 ₽+7.7%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1630
Variant 4The Fever Collection instead of The Operation Riptide Collection
+3 052.49 ₽+16.4%chance of profit 10%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 10%
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
Variant 5The Recoil Collection instead of The Operation Riptide Collection
+3 030.45 ₽+6.0%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
marketplace pricerare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1651
6× P250 | Visions (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0046
Variant 6The Revolution Collection instead of The Operation Riptide Collection
+3 003.30 ₽+5.9%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 122 978.52 ₽
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly30% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1659
6× AWP | Duality (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0048
How to build
Ways to build
3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1641
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
11 286.90 ₽
at 11 286.90
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164197f′ (normalized) 0.164197wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
MAC-10 | Toybox
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1641
(0% of this wear's listings)
4 957.23 ₽
at 1 652.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164197f′ (normalized) 0.164197wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 73) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(3% of this wear's listings)
28 696.86 ₽
at 4 782.81
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004320f′ (normalized) 0.007201wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 47 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 12 000.02 ₽ · little data: 3.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 188 · from 8 684.88 ₽ (float 0.0031) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs44 940.99 ₽
+4 175.49
(+9.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.045500, 0.070000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −29 980 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1641
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
22 573.80 ₽
at 11 286.90
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164197f′ (normalized) 0.164197wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
MAC-10 | Toybox
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1641
(0% of this wear's listings)
3 304.82 ₽
at 1 652.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164197f′ (normalized) 0.164197wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 73) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(3% of this wear's listings)
28 696.86 ₽
at 4 782.81
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004320f′ (normalized) 0.007201wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 47 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 12 000.02 ₽ · little data: 3.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 188 · from 8 684.88 ₽ (float 0.0031) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs54 575.48 ₽
+2 747.89
(+5.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.045500, 0.070000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −27 316 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1641
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
33 860.70 ₽
at 11 286.90
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164197f′ (normalized) 0.164197wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
MAC-10 | Toybox
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1641
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 652.41 ₽
at 1 652.41
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164197f′ (normalized) 0.164197wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 73) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0043
(3% of this wear's listings)
28 696.86 ₽
at 4 782.81
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004320f′ (normalized) 0.007201wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 47 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 12 000.02 ₽ · little data: 3.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 188 · from 8 684.88 ₽ (float 0.0031) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs64 209.97 ₽
+1 320.30
(+2.1%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.045500, 0.070000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
3 outcomes
Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%
in profit
AK-47 | Leet Museo
Factory New
65 464.47 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamAK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)net 56925.63you get 0.045500The Operation Riptide Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 55 065.02 ₽
(you get 47 882.62)) · buy orders: 2808
sell on Market.CSGO: 57 224.59 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 62 746.27 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 42 828.20 ₽listings: 31
on CS.Money: ~ 44 573.92 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 44 660.43 ₽listings: 82
sell now to a buy order: 26 550.93 ₽
(you get 23 087.76)) · buy orders: 1339
sell on Market.CSGO: 19 334.68 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 21 200.31 · lots 12
on CSFloat: from 18 717.16 ₽listings: 44
on CS.Money: ~ 19 702.22 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 18 514.15 ₽listings: 90
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle
Factory New
125 488.29 ₽10.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamM4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)net 122978.52you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 125 488.29 ₽listings 26 · you get 122 978.52 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 172 356.34 ₽
(you get 149 875.07)) · buy orders: 302Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 125 488.29 ₽listings: 26
on CS.Money: ~ 145 678.76 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 130 669.75 ₽listings: 39
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week-2 511.22 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+2 393.77 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Ancient Collection and The Operation Riptide Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
