Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1710676 · ways to build: 4The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+15 983.71₸
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».265 439.30₸
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.281 423.02₸
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+6.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.40%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 631 724.50₸
· profit at most −350 301.48₸
(at most -55.5%) · chance of profit at most 40%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) × 47% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.37238125.13 → 563165.94 ₸
P250 | Visions (Factory New) × 67% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5127314.17 → 68558.56 ₸
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 40.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -243 469.92 ₸.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
Variant 1 this oneThe Ancient Collection + The Recoil Collection
+15 983.74 ₸+6.0%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
marketplace pricerare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1651
6× P250 | Visions (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0046
Variant 2The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+22 892.12 ₸+8.8%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
6× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0045
Variant 3The Fracture Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+19 798.75 ₸+7.7%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1630
Variant 4The Fever Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+16 099.99 ₸+16.4%chance of profit 10%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 10%
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1648
Variant 5The Revolution Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+15 840.49 ₸+5.9%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly30% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1659
6× AWP | Duality (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0048
Variant 6The Clutch Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+14 213.95 ₸+5.3%chance of profit 40%
expensive: M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)
· 648 634.18 ₸
· chance 40%
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly30% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
4× P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1644
6× AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0044
How to build
Ways to build
4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1651
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
238 125.13 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165131f′ (normalized) 0.165131wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0046
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
27 314.17 ₸
at 4 552.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004605f′ (normalized) 0.006578wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 317 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 21 097.48 ₸
Lis-Skins: suitable 5 of 233 · from 18 523.48 ₸ (float 0.0023) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs265 439.30 ₸
+15 983.71
(+6.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.049000, 0.059500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1687
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
178 593.85 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.168740f′ (normalized) 0.168740wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0765
(0% of this wear's listings)
6 047.49 ₸
at 3 023.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076518f′ (normalized) 0.076518wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 253 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 151 · from 13 228.49 ₸ (float 0.0749) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×5
P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0057
(1% of this wear's listings)
22 761.81 ₸
at 4 552.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005703f′ (normalized) 0.008148wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 317 · good ≈ 4
on the market with this float, usually ~5,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 21 097.48 ₸
Lis-Skins: suitable 6 of 233 · from 18 523.48 ₸ (float 0.0023) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs207 403.14 ₸
+12 818.04
(+6.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.049000, 0.059500, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fitcollecting: no data
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 33 · from 39 586.04 ₸ (float 0.4620) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1645
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
59 531.28 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164556f′ (normalized) 0.164556wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0044
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
36 418.89 ₸
at 4 552.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004430f′ (normalized) 0.006329wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 317 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 21 097.48 ₸
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 233 · from 18 523.48 ₸ (float 0.0023) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs147 881.62 ₸
+11 137.73
(+7.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.049000, 0.059500, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
P90 | Run and Hide
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1639
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
59 531.28 ₸
at 59 531.28
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163939f′ (normalized) 0.163939wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 22) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×7
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0748
(0% of this wear's listings)
21 166.20 ₸
at 3 023.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074848f′ (normalized) 0.074848wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 253 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 151) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
P250 | Visions
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0042
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
9 104.72 ₸
at 4 552.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004242f′ (normalized) 0.006060wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 317 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 21 097.48 ₸
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 233 · from 18 523.48 ₸ (float 0.0023) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs89 802.21 ₸
+8 015.25
(+8.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.049000, 0.059500, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
3 outcomes
Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%
in profit
best
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle
Factory New
661 871.64 ₸40.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamM4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)net 648634.18you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 661 871.64 ₸listings 26 · you get 648 634.18 ₸ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 909 071.06 ₸
(you get 790 496.53)) · buy orders: 302Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 661 871.64 ₸listings: 26
on CS.Money: ~ 768 363.64 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 689 200.57 ₸listings: 39
at a loss
worst
AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Factory New
37 451.88 ₸30.00%
SteamAWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)net 32566.86you get 0.049000The Recoil Collectionsells 34 a weeksell now to a buy order: 37 624.93 ₸
(you get 32 717.28)) · buy orders: 2825
sell on Market.CSGO: 30 785.39 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 33 755.91 · lots 40
on CSFloat: from 28 115.03 ₸listings: 184
on CS.Money: ~ 30 066.81 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 29 940.28 ₸listings: 176
at a loss
USP-S | Printstream
Factory New
46 764.04 ₸30.00%
SteamUSP-S | Printstream (Factory New)net 40664.39you get 0.059500The Recoil Collectionsells 33 a weekno buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 40 838.55 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 44 779.14 · lots 45
on CSFloat: from 39 152.33 ₸listings: 245
on CS.Money: ~ 44 316.31 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 42 161.31 ₸listings: 196
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+12 977.16 ₸a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+14 890.55 ₸historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Ancient Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
