Crafts · The Arms Deal 2 Collection
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The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1712541 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +29 909.50₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 20 247.80₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 50 157.30₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +147.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 51 359.94₽ · profit at most −1 202.64₽ (at most -2.3%) · chance of profit at most 90%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P250 | Hive (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 665.96 → 1438.47 ₽
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1850.00 → 3996.00 ₽
MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) × 8 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 17731.84 → 45925.47 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −20 101 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −20 101 ₽: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Mirage Collection
+29 909.50 ₽ +147.7% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −20 101 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× P250 | Hive (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
Variant 2 only The Mirage Collection
+33 769.29 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −21 798 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection
+31 172.19 ₽ +151.8% chance of profit 95%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −20 534 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection
+30 625.22 ₽ +154.4% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 725 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0838
Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection
+30 462.20 ₽ +151.0% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −20 120 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
  • 1× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Arms Deal 2 Collection
+30 454.07 ₽ +155.0% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 557 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 1× Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
P250 | Hive
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0037
665.96 ₽
at 665.96
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003771f′ (normalized) 0.012570wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 160 · good ≈ 2
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 157) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
UMP-45 | Blaze
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0037
1 850.00 ₽
at 1 850.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003771f′ (normalized) 0.047139wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 91 · good ≈ 7
on the market with this float, usually ~7, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 5 000.00 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 396 · from 1 846.79 ₽ (float 0.0037) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
MAC-10 | Amber Fade
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0037
17 731.84 ₽
at 2 216.48
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003771f′ (normalized) 0.009427wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 37 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 62) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 20 247.80 ₽ +29 909.50 (+147.7%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.070000, 0.002703, 0.013513, 0.001081, 0.001622 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 90%
  • Losing outcome 10%
in profit
best
MAG-7 | Bulldozer
Factory New
63 902.75 ₽ 90.00%
price without deals
Steam MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)net 55567.61 you get 0.070000The Mirage Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 17 403.55 ₽ (you get 15 133.52)) · buy orders: 202 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 942.84 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 867.16 · lots 4 CSFloat: price does not match Steam — not shown CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: price does not match Steam — not shown
at a loss
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin
Factory New
1 422.52 ₽ 2.50%
Steam Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)net 1236.97 you get 0.002703 sells 39 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 425.75 ₽ (you get 1 239.78)) · buy orders: 1330 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 107.28 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 214.13 · lots 38 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 1 139.25 ₽ listings: 187 on CS.Money: ~ 1 214.63 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 133.26 ₽ listings: 182
at a loss
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened
Factory New
2 879.19 ₽ 2.50%
pricier variants exist
Steam Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 2503.64 you get 0.013513 sells 9 a week sell now to a buy order: 3 404.21 ₽ (you get 2 960.18)) · buy orders: 2580 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 032.94 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 3 325.60 · lots 28 on CSFloat: from 2 826.72 ₽ listings: 217 on CS.Money: ~ 3 052.86 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 890.10 ₽ listings: 128
at a loss
MP9 | Hypnotic
Factory New
1 534.87 ₽ 2.50%
Steam MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)net 1334.67 you get 0.001081 sells 60 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 525.20 ₽ (you get 1 326.26)) · buy orders: 2930 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 187.33 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 398.39 · lots 25 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 1 199.21 ₽ listings: 175 on CS.Money: ~ 1 314.00 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 252.32 ₽ listings: 300
at a loss
worst
Nova | Graphite
Factory New
900.00 ₽ 2.50%
Steam Nova | Graphite (Factory New)net 782.61 you get 0.001622 sells 29 a week sell now to a buy order: 813.76 ₽ (you get 707.61)) · buy orders: 1048 sell on Market.CSGO: 701.21 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 768.88 · lots 16 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 676.70 ₽ listings: 74 on CS.Money: ~ 711.82 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 682.70 ₽ listings: 104
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