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The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +35.90$

Invest 52.67$

Average return 88.57$

ROI +68.2%

Chance of profit 95%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 122.17$ · profit at most −33.60$ (at most -27.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 10.51 → 22.69 $

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 16.76 → 42.06 $

MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 25.41 → 57.42 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −18 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

+35.90 $ +68.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New) · 119.79 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −18 $

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
6× Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1622
3× MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+22.76 $ +35.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 97.42 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 3 The Horizon Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+18.78 $ +28.9% chance of profit 35%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
3× MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1638
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+17.91 $ +44.4% chance of profit 40%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 148.20 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+12.61 $ +23.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 97.42 $ · chance 5.0%

rare inputs

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048
5× USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048

Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+12.24 $ +40.6% chance of profit 40%

expensive: USP-S | Serum (Factory New) · 97.42 $ · chance 5.0%

rare inputs

1× Nova | Graphite (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
9× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

10.51 $

at 10.51

Steam

×6

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

16.76 $

at 2.79

Steam

×3

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

25.41 $

at 8.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 52.67 $ +35.90 (+68.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −21 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

21.01 $

at 10.51

Steam

×5

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1689

13.96 $

at 2.79

Steam

×3

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

25.41 $

at 8.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 60.38 $ +26.43 (+43.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −19 $

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

31.52 $

at 10.51

Steam

×5

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

13.96 $

at 2.79

Steam

×2

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

16.94 $

at 8.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 62.42 $ +22.62 (+36.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −17 $

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

42.03 $

at 10.51

Steam

×5

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

13.96 $

at 2.79

Steam

×1

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

8.47 $

at 8.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 64.46 $ +18.82 (+29.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −18 $

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Nova | Graphite

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

63.04 $

at 10.51

Steam

×1

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

2.05 $

at 2.05

Steam

×3

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

8.38 $

at 2.79

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 73.47 $ +6.29 (+8.6%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

best

M4A4 | Hellish

Factory New

137.76 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Latte Rush

Factory New

70.01 $ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Cold Blooded

Factory New

55.19 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Serum

Factory New

112.04 $ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +20.81 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +29.01 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 2 Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1743030 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 34.94$ · invest 49.35$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165707 instead of 0.162278; MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New): float at most 0.004780 instead of 0.003736
Craft 1743052 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 34.73$ · invest 51.87$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ rare inputs

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165131 instead of 0.162278; MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New): float at most 0.004605 instead of 0.003736
Craft 1713095 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 34.20$ · invest 50.60$
profit on prices without salesat least −21 $ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163631 instead of 0.162278; MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New): float at most 0.004148 instead of 0.003736
Craft 1743068 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 34.03$ · invest 54.47$
profit on prices without salesat least −24 $ rare inputs

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of Nova | Graphite (Factory New); Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165131 instead of 0.162278; MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New): float at most 0.004605 instead of 0.003736

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build