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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Fever Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +20.68$

Invest 98.23$

Average return 118.91$

ROI +21.1%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 241.61$ · profit at most −122.70$ (at most -50.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 35.61 → 76.91 $

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) × 9 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 62.62 → 164.70 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Fever Collection

+20.68 $ +21.1% chance of profit 45%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 165.85 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0762

Variant 2 The Gamma Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+49.17 $ +62.1% chance of profit 55%

expensive: M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) · 244.57 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
1× SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 3 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+47.30 $ +66.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 165.85 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
1× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

Variant 4 The Fracture Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+46.16 $ +66.2% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 165.85 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+45.16 $ +60.6% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 165.85 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051

Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

+44.75 $ +61.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Printstream (Factory New) · 165.85 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

9× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
1× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

35.61 $

at 35.61

Steam

×9

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

62.62 $

at 6.96

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 98.23 $ +20.68 (+21.1%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 45%
About break-even 10%

in profit

best

AWP | Printstream

Factory New

190.72 $ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Bad Trip

Factory New

88.71 $ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Victoria

Factory New

110.01 $ 10.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +6.71 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +16.14 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Fever Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Fever Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build