Crafts · The Arms Deal 3 Collection
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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1712925 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +30 302.13₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 20 194.42₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 50 496.55₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +150.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 51 244.64₽ · profit at most −748.09₽ (at most -1.5%) · chance of profit at most 90%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 612.58 → 1323.17 ₽
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1850.00 → 3996.00 ₽
MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 17731.84 → 45925.47 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −20 146 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −20 146 ₽: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New), Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New), Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Mirage Collection
+30 302.13 ₽ +150.1% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −20 146 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 2 only The Mirage Collection
+33 769.29 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −21 798 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection
+31 172.19 ₽ +151.8% chance of profit 95%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −20 534 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection
+30 625.22 ₽ +154.4% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 725 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0838
Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection
+30 462.20 ₽ +151.0% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −20 120 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
  • 1× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection
+30 454.07 ₽ +155.0% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 557 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 1× Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
Dual Berettas | Panther
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
612.58 ₽
at 612.58
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003948f′ (normalized) 0.006807wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 131 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 150) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
UMP-45 | Blaze
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
1 850.00 ₽
at 1 850.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003948f′ (normalized) 0.049356wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 91 · good ≈ 7
on the market with this float, usually ~7, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 5 000.00 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 5 of 396 · from 1 846.79 ₽ (float 0.0037) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
MAC-10 | Amber Fade
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
17 731.84 ₽
at 2 216.48
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003948f′ (normalized) 0.009871wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 37 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 62) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 20 194.42 ₽ +30 302.13 (+150.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.070000, 0.002703, 0.010811, 0.002703, 0.002703 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 90%
  • Losing outcome 10%
in profit
best
MAG-7 | Bulldozer
Factory New
63 902.75 ₽ 90.00%
price without deals
Steam MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)net 55567.61 you get 0.070000The Mirage Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 17 403.55 ₽ (you get 15 133.52)) · buy orders: 202 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 942.84 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 867.16 · lots 4 CSFloat: price does not match Steam — not shown CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: price does not match Steam — not shown
at a loss
worst
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate
Factory New
701.60 ₽ 2.50%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)net 610.09 you get 0.002703 sells 14 a week sell now to a buy order: 689.45 ₽ (you get 599.52)) · buy orders: 1046 sell on Market.CSGO: 588.96 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 645.79 · lots 37 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 566.20 ₽ listings: 71 on CS.Money: ~ 576.48 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 591.90 ₽ listings: 91
at a loss
Desert Eagle | Heirloom
Factory New
11 868.00 ₽ 2.50%
price without deals
Steam Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)net 10320.00 you get 0.010811
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 10 064.42 ₽ (you get 8 751.66)) · buy orders: 1313 sell on Market.CSGO: 9 219.26 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 10 108.84 · lots 14 on CSFloat: from 8 176.07 ₽ listings: 36 on CS.Money: ~ 8 313.12 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 8 725.99 ₽ listings: 59
at a loss
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy
Factory New
1 541.91 ₽ 2.50%
Steam Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)net 1340.79 you get 0.002703 sells ≈21 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 1 585.44 ₽ (you get 1 378.64)) · buy orders: 2117 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 312.05 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 438.66 · lots 55 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 1 387.66 ₽ listings: 178 on CS.Money: ~ 1 263.46 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 282.30 ₽ listings: 187
at a loss
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit
Factory New
8 230.94 ₽ 2.50%
price without deals
Steam Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)net 7157.34 you get 0.002703
by lot · 1 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 166.28 ₽ (you get 7 101.11)) · buy orders: 2386 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 201.59 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 6 799.99 · lots 16 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 6 398.66 ₽ listings: 34 on CS.Money: ~ 6 048.32 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 6 072.30 ₽ listings: 57
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