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The Arms Deal Collection + The Overpass Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +5 999.32₽

Invest 9 940.95₽

Average return 15 940.27₽

ROI +60.4%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 25 501.48₽ · profit at most −9 561.21₽ (at most -37.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

AUG | Wings (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1368.54 → 2956.05 ₽

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) × 9 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 8572.41 → 22545.44 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −9 483 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal Collection + The Overpass Collection

+5 999.32 ₽ +60.3% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 483 ₽

1× AUG | Wings (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053

Variant 2 The Mirage Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+25 515.72 ₽ +101.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −24 717 ₽

1× SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 only The Overpass Collection

+7 431.82 ₽ +78.0% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 525 ₽

10× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+7 088.31 ₽ +80.6% chance of profit 93%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 744 ₽

9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055
1× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+7 042.40 ₽ +78.3% chance of profit 93%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 998 ₽

9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
1× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0242

Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Arms Deal Collection

+6 884.85 ₽ +78.0% chance of profit 92%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 715 ₽

9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0066
1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0866

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

AUG | Wings

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

1 368.54 ₽

at 1 368.54

Steam

×9

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

8 572.41 ₽

at 952.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9 940.95 ₽ +5 999.32 (+60.4%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Factory New

15 003.44 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Road Rash

Factory New

23 997.02 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo

Factory New

8 075.60 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Dark Water

Minimal Wear

7 710.69 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

USP-S | Dark Water

Minimal Wear

7 646.90 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4 536.60 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6 143.51 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1712571 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 6 327.08₽ · invest 9 080.42₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 934 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Wings (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006222 instead of 0.005374
Craft 1738992 · The Overpass Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 6 307.70₽ · invest 9 077.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −9 078 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Wings (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006222 instead of 0.005374
Craft 1734648 · The Havoc Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 6 117.96₽ · invest 10 222.40₽
profit on prices without salesat least −10 222 ₽ rare inputs

P250 | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Wings (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006222 instead of 0.005374
Craft 1723532 · The Control Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 5 874.52₽ · invest 10 215.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −9 983 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New) instead of AUG | Wings (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.005374

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build