The Arms Deal Collection
+ The Wildfire Collection
StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1713414 · ways to build: 2StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+11 688.42₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».59 977.62₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.71 666.04₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+19.5%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 143 276.19₽
· profit at most −71 610.15₽
(at most -50.0%) · chance of profit at most 0%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) × 19% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.1620745.68 → 44810.67 ₽
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 89% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5931917.52 → 82666.38 ₽
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) × 19% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.167314.42 → 15799.15 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −59 978 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −59 978 ₽: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New), StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New), StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
profit on prices without salesat least −7 234 ₽marketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
2 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
9% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0060
(≈2% of this wear's listings)
20 745.68 ₽
at 20 745.68
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.006006f′ (normalized) 0.075076wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 37 503.16 ₽
×8
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0768
(0% of this wear's listings)
31 917.52 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076864f′ (normalized) 0.076864wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
×1
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0060
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 314.42 ₽
at 7 314.42
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.006006f′ (normalized) 0.010010wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 12 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs59 977.62 ₽
+11 688.42
(+19.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.044800, 0.005600«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −73 409 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0041
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
41 491.36 ₽
at 20 745.68
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004100f′ (normalized) 0.051254wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×8
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0746
(0% of this wear's listings)
31 917.52 ₽
at 3 989.69
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074686f′ (normalized) 0.074686wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs73 408.88 ₽
+1 458.23
(+2.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.044800, 0.005600«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 68 904.47 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 75 553.15 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 66 385.04 ₽listings: 26
on CS.Money: ~ 67 868.64 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 64 833.77 ₽listings: 41
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
10 023.81 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)net 8716.36you get 0.044800The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 920.30 ₽
(you get 6 017.65)) · buy orders: 823
sell on Market.CSGO: 8 348.27 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 9 153.81 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 7 143.03 ₽listings: 22
on CS.Money: ~ 7 261.24 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 7 343.47 ₽listings: 37
in profit
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike
Factory New
115 546.96 ₽10.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)net 100475.62you get 0.005600
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 78 856.34 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 86 465.29 · lots 14price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 70 238.80 ₽listings: 73
on CS.Money: ~ 77 505.18 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 76 196.32 ₽listings: 57
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+1 135.11 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+11 264.52 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
