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The Breakout Collection + The Overpass Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +35 175.14₸

Invest 45 498.98₸

Average return 80 674.12₸

ROI +77.3%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 119 528.40₸ · profit at most −38 854.28₸ (at most -32.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 284.92 → 615.43 ₸

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) × 9 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 45214.06 → 118912.98 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −45 317 ₸

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Overpass Collection

+35 175.13 ₸ +77.3% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 110 060.11 ₸ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −45 317 ₸

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+11 550.55 ₸ +313.5% chance of profit 36%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 61 502.74 ₸ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+3 579.44 ₸ +96.8% chance of profit 24%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 50 398.87 ₸ · chance 8.0%

rare inputs

6× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+2 539.95 ₸ +61.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 11 226.34 ₸ · chance 30%

rare inputs

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765

Variant 5 The Mirage Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+160 390.61 ₸ +154.9% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 293 084.12 ₸ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −103 385 ₸

1× Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 6 only The Overpass Collection

+39 198.18 ₸ +78.0% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 110 060.11 ₸ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −50 238 ₸

10× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Negev | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

284.92 ₸

at 284.92

Steam

×9

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

45 214.06 ₸

at 5 023.78

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 45 498.98 ₸ +35 175.14 (+77.3%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

AWP | Pink DDPAT

Factory New

79 133.69 ₸ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Road Rash

Factory New

126 569.16 ₸ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Osiris

Factory New

1 558.84 ₸ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Tigris

Factory New

3 704.61 ₸ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Nova | Koi

Factory New

1 436.84 ₸ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Supernova

Factory New

1 657.47 ₸ 2.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +28 041.45 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +36 158.23 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 67 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −47 425 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −46 118 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −47 457 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 969 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −47 204 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 655 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −46 748 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −44 984 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −44 949 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 230 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 082 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 088 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 141 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 522 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 153 ₸ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 165 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 553 ₸ rare inputs

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Craft 1738465 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 35 311.46₸ · invest 45 531.63₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 181 ₸ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 1719671 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 35 297.46₸ · invest 45 370.02₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 195 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 200 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 288 ₸ rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 258 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 303 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 250 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 240 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 241 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 243 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 255 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 257 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 259 ₸ rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006955 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 528 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 268 ₸ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006840 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1717757 · The CS20 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 35 213.41₸ · invest 45 522.98₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 345 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 286 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 288 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 290 ₸ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 293 ₸ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −45 322 ₸ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006957 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 572 ₸ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.004081 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 304 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006916 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738882 · The Overpass Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 35 182.31₸ · invest 45 400.56₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 310 ₸ rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006955 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738933 · The Overpass Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 35 179.40₸ · invest 45 485.27₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 313 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Zander (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.005940 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738885 · The Overpass Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 35 176.81₸ · invest 45 396.03₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 316 ₸ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007008 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 384 ₸ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007112 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 387 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007112 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 393 ₸ rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.004430 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 776 ₸ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
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profit on prices without salesat least −47 747 ₸ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006222 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1714532 · The Bank Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 35 039.40₸ · invest 45 936.28₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 453 ₸ rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.005736 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1728538 · The Fever Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 35 038.29₸ · invest 45 561.32₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 454 ₸ rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007070 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 461 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.006756
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profit on prices without salesat least −45 468 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007112 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1735463 · The Huntsman Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 987.03₸ · invest 45 901.47₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 505 ₸ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.005861 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738980 · The Overpass Collection + The Train Collection · profit 34 984.34₸ · invest 45 529.47₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 508 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006591 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1737303 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 956.86₸ · invest 46 593.57₸
profit on prices without salesat least −46 262 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738954 · The Overpass Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 34 903.94₸ · invest 46 313.45₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 588 ₸ rare inputs

AUG | Signal Scanner (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007112 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1733936 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 813.05₸ · invest 46 487.61₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 679 ₸ rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1733325 · The Glove Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 798.44₸ · invest 47 240.53₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 877 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006682 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1711427 · The Anubis Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 741.79₸ · invest 47 308.09₸
profit on prices without salesat least −47 074 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.007112 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1707607 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 692.10₸ · invest 46 676.54₸
profit on prices without salesat least −46 504 ₸ rare inputs

AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006591 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1708697 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 654.55₸ · invest 48 141.33₸
profit on prices without salesat least −48 141 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006742 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1739006 · The Overpass Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 34 639.63₸ · invest 46 640.30₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 853 ₸ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006264 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1726966 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 637.87₸ · invest 45 955.11₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 855 ₸ rare inputs

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006871 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738971 · The Overpass Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 34 594.11₸ · invest 46 407.44₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 898 ₸ rare inputs

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006987 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1737765 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 474.74₸ · invest 48 061.48₸
profit on prices without salesat least −46 990 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006682 instead of 0.006756
Craft 1738058 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 34 367.95₸ · invest 46 913.78₸
profit on prices without salesat least −46 329 ₸ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New): float at most 0.006955 instead of 0.006756

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build