StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1716819 · ways to build: 5StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+14 422.50₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».8 136.81₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.22 559.31₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+177.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 19 995.17₽
· profit at most +2 564.14₽
(at most +12.8%) · chance of profit at most 50%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested) × 16% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.161831.92 → 3956.95 ₽
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn) × 16% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16677.77 → 1463.98 ₽
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) × 86% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.595627.12 → 14574.24 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −8 137 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −8 137 ₽: StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New), StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New), StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New), StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
1× StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0745
1× StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)buy0.1500–0.1631
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1629
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
1 831.92 ₽
at 1 831.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162981f′ (normalized) 0.162981wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 30 · from 1 875.06 ₽ (float 0.1550) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum
Well-Worn
buy0.3800–0.3839
(7% of this wear's listings)
677.77 ₽
at 677.77
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.383950f′ (normalized) 0.351527wear 0.3800–0.4500on the market 31 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 961.14 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 58 · from 557.63 ₽ (float 0.3817) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1629
(3% of this wear's listings)
5 627.12 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162981f′ (normalized) 0.045061wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs8 136.81 ₽
+14 422.50
(+177.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.061250, 0.070000, 0.043750, 0.080500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −16 563 ₽
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1672
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 663.84 ₽
at 1 831.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167271f′ (normalized) 0.167271wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 30 · from 1 809.96 ₽ (float 0.1671) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×5
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0760
(0% of this wear's listings)
10 788.85 ₽
at 2 157.77
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076007f′ (normalized) 0.076007wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 34) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1672
(3% of this wear's listings)
2 110.17 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.167271f′ (normalized) 0.053473wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs16 562.86 ₽
+5 428.00
(+32.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.043750, 0.080500, 0.061250, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −11 874 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1657
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
5 495.76 ₽
at 1 831.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165705f′ (normalized) 0.165705wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 30 · from 1 875.06 ₽ (float 0.1550) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0754
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 157.77 ₽
at 2 157.77
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075462f′ (normalized) 0.075462wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 34) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1657
(3% of this wear's listings)
4 220.34 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165705f′ (normalized) 0.050403wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs11 873.87 ₽
+10 401.21
(+87.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.061250, 0.070000, 0.043750, 0.080500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −9 285 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1655
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 663.84 ₽
at 1 831.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165552f′ (normalized) 0.165552wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 30 · from 1 875.06 ₽ (float 0.1550) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1655
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
1 400.86 ₽
at 700.43
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165552f′ (normalized) 0.121634wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 38 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 73 · from 1 426.21 ₽ (float 0.1650) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1655
(3% of this wear's listings)
4 220.34 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165552f′ (normalized) 0.050103wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs9 285.04 ₽
+13 179.53
(+141.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.061250, 0.070000, 0.043750, 0.080500«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −18 017 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1644
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 663.84 ₽
at 1 831.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164457f′ (normalized) 0.164457wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 30 · from 1 875.06 ₽ (float 0.1550) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0750
(0% of this wear's listings)
12 946.62 ₽
at 2 157.77
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075028f′ (normalized) 0.075028wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 34) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1644
(3% of this wear's listings)
1 406.78 ₽
at 703.39
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164457f′ (normalized) 0.047955wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 34 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 4 290.76 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 126 · from 3 818.64 ₽ (float 0.1609) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs18 017.24 ₽
+3 878.88
(+21.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.087499900result 0.043750, 0.080500, 0.061250, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
sell now to a buy order: 8 049.62 ₽
(you get 6 999.66)) · buy orders: 655
sell on Market.CSGO: 6 929.09 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 7 597.69 · lots 17
on CSFloat: from 6 334.42 ₽listings: 20
on CS.Money: ~ 6 541.71 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 6 520.30 ₽listings: 53
in profit
best
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor
Factory New
43 104.32 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)net 37482.02you get 0.070000The Prisma Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 39 120.69 ₽
(you get 34 017.99)) · buy orders: 562
sell on Market.CSGO: 30 669.78 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 33 629.15 · lots 5
on CSFloat: from 27 399.46 ₽listings: 34
on CS.Money: ~ 29 456.11 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 29 221.41 ₽listings: 35
in profit
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex
Factory New
27 760.32 ₽5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)net 24139.41you get 0.043750
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 22 195.26 ₽
(you get 19 300.22)) · buy orders: 1002
sell on Market.CSGO: 18 318.75 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 20 086.35 · lots 20
on CSFloat: from 17 320.07 ₽listings: 55
on CS.Money: ~ 21 379.41 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 17 708.10 ₽listings: 63
in profit
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov
Minimal Wear
22 164.94 ₽5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)net 19273.86you get 0.080500
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 16 421.48 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 18 006.01 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 14 895.09 ₽listings: 20
on CS.Money: ~ 16 716.18 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 15 110.95 ₽listings: 36
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+12 776.60 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+13 901.92 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Prisma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
3 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1712996
· The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 14 603.43₽
· invest 9 166.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −9 167 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.383530 instead of 0.383950; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161600 instead of 0.162981
Craft 1739056
· The Phoenix Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 14 422.74₽
· invest 7 655.84₽
profit on prices without salesat least −7 656 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384631 instead of 0.383950; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165217 instead of 0.162981
Craft 1740277
· The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 13 336.04₽
· invest 8 535.25₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 535 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384301 instead of 0.383950; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164134 instead of 0.162981
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
