to all crafts

The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +5.63$

Invest 17.30$

Average return 22.93$

ROI +32.5%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 43.14$ · profit at most −20.21$ (at most -46.9%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 0.40 → 0.87 $

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 2.41 → 5.32 $

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) × 7 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 14.49 → 36.95 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −5 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+5.63 $ +32.5% chance of profit 45%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) · 45.90 $ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 $

1× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
2× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1622
7× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

Variant 2 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+6.21 $ +115.9% chance of profit 94%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) · 22.28 $ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+126.75 $ +495.3% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 540.57 $ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −25 $

6× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The CS20 Collection

+86.16 $ +193.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 581.95 $ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −38 $

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+85.56 $ +196.9% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 581.95 $ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −38 $

1× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0858

Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The CS20 Collection

+50.16 $ +23.2% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 540.57 $ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −212 $

2× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
1 more

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

0.40 $

at 0.40

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

2.41 $

at 1.20

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

14.49 $

at 2.07

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.30 $ +5.63 (+32.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −4 $

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

2.18 $

at 0.44

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1657

1.20 $

at 1.20

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

8.28 $

at 2.07

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.67 $ +4.20 (+36.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −4 $

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

0.27 $

at 0.27

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

2.62 $

at 0.44

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

2.00 $

at 2.00

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

4.14 $

at 2.07

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.04 $ +3.30 (+36.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 53%
About break-even 2%

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

10.51 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

35.95 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

52.78 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

14.35 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy

Factory New

5.81 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec

Factory New

3.63 $ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent

Factory New

19.61 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno

Factory New

4.88 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique

Factory New

6.57 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.01 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.90 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1721201 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.19$ · invest 17.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161543 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.003513 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1742454 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.00$ · invest 17.60$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163269 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004038 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1739335 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.91$ · invest 17.71$
profit on prices without salesat least −5 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163346 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004062 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1735257 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.85$ · invest 17.59$
profit on prices without salesat least −5 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163269 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004038 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1731648 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.69$ · invest 17.27$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165634 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004758 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1739756 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.65$ · invest 17.27$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165634 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004758 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1722026 · The Chroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.64$ · invest 17.93$
profit on prices without salesat least −5 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164248 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004336 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1732320 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.61$ · invest 17.43$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161977 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.003645 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1736574 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.59$ · invest 17.10$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163253 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004033 instead of 0.003733
Craft 1728935 · The Fever Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.59$ · invest 17.12$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165634 instead of 0.162268; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New): float at most 0.004758 instead of 0.003733

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build