The Danger Zone Collection
+ The Falchion Collection
StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1723724 · ways to build: 5StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+17 835.76₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».14 283.17₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.32 118.93₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+124.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.55%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 36 063.28₽
· profit at most −3 944.35₽
(at most -10.9%) · chance of profit at most 45%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) × 17% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16763.11 → 1648.32 ₽
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) × 87% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5912120.08 → 31391.01 ₽
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) × 17% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.161399.98 → 3023.96 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −14 283 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −14 283 ₽: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New), StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New), StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New), StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly85% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0757
(0% of this wear's listings)
763.11 ₽
at 763.11
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075746f′ (normalized) 0.151493wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 16 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.1 d.
×8
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0050
(0% of this wear's listings)
12 120.08 ₽
at 1 515.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005028f′ (normalized) 0.010056wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 57 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×1
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0757
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
1 399.98 ₽
at 1 399.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075746f′ (normalized) 0.075746wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs14 283.17 ₽
+17 835.76
(+124.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.015385, 0.030769, 0.030769«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −14 805 ₽
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×7
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0056
(0% of this wear's listings)
10 605.07 ₽
at 1 515.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005605f′ (normalized) 0.011210wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 57 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×3
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0764
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
4 199.94 ₽
at 1 399.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076405f′ (normalized) 0.076405wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs14 805.01 ₽
+15 707.43
(+106.1%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.015385, 0.030769, 0.030769«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −15 914 ₽
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×6
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0052
(0% of this wear's listings)
9 090.06 ₽
at 1 515.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005265f′ (normalized) 0.010530wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 57 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×3
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0760
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
4 199.94 ₽
at 1 399.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076017f′ (normalized) 0.076017wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×1
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0052
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 624.03 ₽
at 2 624.03
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005265f′ (normalized) 0.016454wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs15 914.03 ₽
+13 795.17
(+86.7%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.015385, 0.030769, 0.030769«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −17 023 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×5
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0049
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 575.05 ₽
at 1 515.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004964f′ (normalized) 0.009928wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 57 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×3
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
4 199.94 ₽
at 1 399.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075673f′ (normalized) 0.075673wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×2
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0049
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 248.06 ₽
at 2 624.03
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004964f′ (normalized) 0.015513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs17 023.05 ₽
+11 882.91
(+69.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.015385, 0.030769, 0.030769«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −18 132 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0046
(0% of this wear's listings)
6 060.04 ₽
at 1 515.01
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004695f′ (normalized) 0.009391wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 57 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×3
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0753
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
4 199.94 ₽
at 1 399.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075366f′ (normalized) 0.075366wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×3
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0046
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 872.09 ₽
at 2 624.03
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004695f′ (normalized) 0.014674wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs18 132.07 ₽
+9 970.65
(+55.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.030769, 0.030769, 0.070000, 0.015385«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov
Factory New
66 499.99 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)net 57826.08you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 36 479.99 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 39 999.99 · lots 9
on CSFloat: from 37 432.60 ₽listings: 30
on CS.Money: ~ 38 761.16 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 38 881.93 ₽listings: 37
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir
Factory New
9 221.00 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)net 8018.26you get 0.015385
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 941.79 ₽
(you get 7 775.46)) · buy orders: 547
sell on Market.CSGO: 7 776.41 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 8 526.77 · lots 32
on CSFloat: from 6 896.34 ₽listings: 80
on CS.Money: ~ 7 512.22 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 7 621.00 ₽listings: 78
sell now to a buy order: 28 173.67 ₽
(you get 24 498.84)) · buy orders: 647
sell on Market.CSGO: 23 516.19 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 25 785.30 · lots 12
on CSFloat: from 21 757.16 ₽listings: 48
on CS.Money: ~ 25 157.79 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 24 483.66 ₽listings: 48
sell now to a buy order: 21 718.10 ₽
(you get 18 885.30)) · buy orders: 930
sell on Market.CSGO: 22 737.09 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 24 931.02 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 17 590.75 ₽listings: 25
on CS.Money: ~ 18 841.36 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 17 831.45 ₽listings: 32
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+15 073.73 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+17 575.94 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
12 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1719095
· The Chroma 2 Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 18 218.29₽
· invest 14 194.32₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 194 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075368 instead of 0.075746; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.004697 instead of 0.005028
Craft 1723762
· The Danger Zone Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 17 920.34₽
· invest 13 936.19₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 107 ₽rare inputs
Craft 1724548
· The Danger Zone Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 17 815.59₽
· invest 13 737.19₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 737 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075254 instead of 0.075746; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.004597 instead of 0.005028
Craft 1720308
· The Chroma 3 Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 17 675.72₽
· invest 14 206.49₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 206 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074438 instead of 0.075746; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.003883 instead of 0.005028
Craft 1723860
· The Danger Zone Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 17 669.39₽
· invest 14 102.26₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 102 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074648 instead of 0.075746; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.004067 instead of 0.005028
Craft 1723832
· The Danger Zone Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 17 482.44₽
· invest 14 277.74₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 011 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074648 instead of 0.075746; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.004067 instead of 0.005028
Craft 1716348
· The Breakout Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 17 463.59₽
· invest 15 040.96₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 041 ₽rare inputs
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1724397
· The Danger Zone Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 17 399.92₽
· invest 13 570.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 049 ₽rare inputs
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
