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The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +3 767.10₽

Invest 20 479.93₽

Average return 24 247.03₽

ROI +18.4%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 49 770.10₽ · profit at most −25 523.08₽ (at most -51.3%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 2151.28 → 4646.76 ₽

SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) × 3 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 3526.29 → 7969.42 ₽

XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) × 6 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 14802.36 → 37153.92 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −15 637 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+3 767.10 ₽ +18.4% chance of profit 45%

expensive: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 40 869.57 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −15 637 ₽

1× P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
3× SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
6× XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

Variant 2 The Prisma Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 684.66 ₽ +65.6% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

float out of reach

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
1× XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618

Variant 3 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 585.47 ₽ +60.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
1× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 548.31 ₽ +58.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1649
1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 5 The Fracture Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 476.39 ₽ +61.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

rare inputs

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1656
1× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047

Variant 6 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 385.72 ₽ +59.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 45%

9× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1658
1× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

2 151.28 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

3 526.29 ₽

at 1 175.43

Steam

×6

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

14 802.36 ₽

at 2 467.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20 479.93 ₽ +3 767.10 (+18.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −11 743 ₽

12% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 12% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0085

12 907.68 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0797

3 526.29 ₽

at 1 175.43

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0085

2 467.06 ₽

at 2 467.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 901.03 ₽ +2 504.42 (+13.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 522 ₽

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

10 756.40 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0789

3 526.29 ₽

at 1 175.43

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

4 934.12 ₽

at 2 467.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 216.81 ₽ +2 756.95 (+14.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −13 301 ₽

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

8 605.12 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

3 526.29 ₽

at 1 175.43

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

7 401.18 ₽

at 2 467.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 532.59 ₽ +3 009.49 (+15.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −9 793 ₽

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

P250 | Kintsugi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0778

2 123.40 ₽

at 1 061.70

Steam

×7

P250 | Kintsugi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

15 058.96 ₽

at 2 151.28

Steam

×1

P250 | Cartel

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0778

1 157.01 ₽

at 1 157.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 339.37 ₽ +1 361.13 (+7.4%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 5%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

47 000.00 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

P2000 | Fire Elemental

Factory New

10 075.29 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

AWP | Queen's Gambit

Factory New

23 282.87 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

20 721.15 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 236.30 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 132.66 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1729795 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 956.82₽ · invest 18 938.45₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 434 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076405 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005605 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1735268 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 889.92₽ · invest 20 336.84₽
profit on prices without salesat least −16 394 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076694 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005857 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1718129 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 887.24₽ · invest 19 400.48₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 209 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076497 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005685 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1739347 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 871.88₽ · invest 19 345.82₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 519 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075950 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005206 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1740888 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 836.27₽ · invest 19 191.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 555 ₽ rare inputs

P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076623 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005795 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1741246 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 831.74₽ · invest 19 331.52₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 560 ₽ rare inputs

AWP | Duality (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076694 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005857 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1743110 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 3 788.64₽ · invest 20 988.53₽
profit on prices without salesat least −17 046 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076530 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005714 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1723240 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 780.34₽ · invest 19 307.82₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 037 ₽ rare inputs

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076561 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005741 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1717052 · The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 704.65₽ · invest 20 642.68₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 806 ₽ rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075950 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005206 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1739770 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 681.10₽ · invest 19 893.05₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 951 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)
Craft 1742773 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 640.54₽ · invest 19 923.41₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 751 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076485 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005675 instead of 0.005946
Craft 1721215 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 609.85₽ · invest 20 423.27₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 417 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076674 instead of 0.076795; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005840 instead of 0.005946

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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