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The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +7.40$

Invest 13.03$

Average return 20.42$

ROI +56.8%

Chance of profit 70%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 32.92$ · profit at most −12.50$ (at most -38.0%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 1.01 → 2.28 $

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 12.02 → 30.64 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −9 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

+7.40 $ +56.8% chance of profit 70%

expensive: StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) · 65.99 $ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 $

3× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
7× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+127.37 $ +564.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 540.57 $ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −21 $

6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

+124.19 $ +305.5% chance of profit 55%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 540.57 $ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −38 $

6× StatTrak™ M249 | Magma (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

+86.76 $ +195.7% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 581.95 $ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −39 $

1× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+85.66 $ +199.4% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 581.95 $ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −38 $

1× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 6 The Falchion Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+9.76 $ +78.1% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 72.41 $ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −6 $

1× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
7× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

1.01 $

at 0.34

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

12.02 $

at 1.72

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13.03 $ +7.40 (+56.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 $

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr.

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0789

0.76 $

at 0.19

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

1.68 $

at 0.34

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0789

1.72 $

at 1.72

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4.16 $ +1.35 (+32.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −5 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr.

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

0.38 $

at 0.19

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

1.35 $

at 0.34

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

6.87 $

at 1.72

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.59 $ +4.38 (+50.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −4 $

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr.

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

0.57 $

at 0.19

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

1.35 $

at 0.34

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

5.15 $

at 1.72

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.07 $ +3.42 (+48.3%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 70%
Losing outcome 30%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina

Factory New

75.88 $ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse

Factory New

17.51 $ 17.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron

Factory New

18.62 $ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull

Factory New

16.23 $ 17.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat

Factory New

2.05 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade

Factory New

3.84 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror

Factory New

4.60 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell

Factory New

5.57 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

Factory New

1.35 $ 6.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4.04 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7.28 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Winter Offensive Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 25 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −11 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −9 $ rare inputs

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How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build