to all crafts

The Dust Collection + The Italy Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Average profit +76.55$

Invest 76.40$

Average return 152.94$

ROI +100.2%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 188.70$ · profit at most −35.76$ (at most -18.9%) · chance of profit at most 33%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) × 5 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 75.12 → 185.55 $

XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) × 5 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 1.28 → 3.16 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −76 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Dust Collection + The Italy Collection

+76.55 $ +100.2% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 521.79 $ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −76 $

5× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
5× XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+91.11 $ +97.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 521.79 $ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −92 $

6× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
4× SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+89.15 $ +65.2% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 521.79 $ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −136 $

7× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× Souvenir P2000 | Grassland (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 4 The Harlequin Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+77.13 $ +101.6% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 521.79 $ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −75 $

5× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
5× XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+77.03 $ +101.6% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 521.79 $ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −75 $

5× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
5× SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+76.71 $ +100.9% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New) · 521.79 $ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −76 $

5× AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
5× M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

AK-47 | Predator

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

75.12 $

at 15.02

Steam

×5

XM1014 | CaliCamo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

1.28 $

at 0.26

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 76.40 $ +76.55 (+100.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

AUG | Copperhead

Minimal Wear

159.60 $ 16.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

AWP | Snake Camo

Factory New

600.06 $ 16.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Copper

Factory New

291.86 $ 16.67%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Candy Apple

Factory New

2.16 $ 16.67%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Anodized Navy

Factory New

0.97 $ 16.67%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Full Stop

Factory New

0.67 $ 16.67%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +53.03 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +76.99 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dust Collection and The Italy Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 18 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1711915 · The Arabesque Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 91.59$ · invest 92.63$
profit on prices without salesat least −91 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074656 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1727163 · The Dust Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 91.11$ · invest 93.13$
profit on prices without salesat least −92 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074656 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1727147 · The Dust Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 89.15$ · invest 136.69$
profit on prices without salesat least −136 $ rare inputs

Souvenir P2000 | Grassland (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 5; AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074067 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1711149 · The Anubis Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 86.63$ · invest 99.76$
profit on prices without salesat least −97 $ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074189 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1705191 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 77.28$ · invest 76.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ rare inputs

MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1714806 · The Boreal Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 77.19$ · invest 75.83$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074592 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1727124 · The Dust Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 77.13$ · invest 75.95$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1727149 · The Dust Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 77.03$ · invest 75.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1709479 · The Achroma Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 76.94$ · invest 75.87$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1713608 · The Ascent Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 76.91$ · invest 76.00$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1727160 · The Dust Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 76.71$ · invest 76.05$
profit on prices without salesat least −76 $ rare inputs

M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1706020 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 76.67$ · invest 82.49$
profit on prices without salesat least −82 $ rare inputs

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1727122 · The Dust Collection + The Graphic Design Collection · profit 76.59$ · invest 77.46$
profit on prices without salesat least −76 $ rare inputs

M249 | Spectrogram (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1706851 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 76.47$ · invest 80.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −76 $ rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074205 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1727132 · The Dust Collection + The Lake Collection · profit 76.32$ · invest 76.43$
profit on prices without salesat least −76 $ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1726815 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 76.15$ · invest 77.22$
profit on prices without salesat least −76 $ rare inputs

Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)
Craft 1708240 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 75.83$ · invest 85.02$
profit on prices without salesat least −84 $ rare inputs

Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074307 instead of 0.074809
Craft 1718841 · The Chop Shop Collection + The Dust Collection · profit 73.53$ · invest 144.93$
profit on prices without salesat least −140 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New); AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074809

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dust Collection + The Italy Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build