The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +828.91₽

Invest 1 086.33₽

Average return 1 915.24₽

ROI +76.3%

Chance of profit 54%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 699.25₽ · profit at most −784.01₽ (at most -29.1%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 157.38 → 347.81 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 884.38 → 2255.17 ₽

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 44.57 → 96.27 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −536 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

+828.91 ₽ +76.3% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 6 202.32 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −536 ₽

2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
7× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
1× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

+11 422.92 ₽ +453.6% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 170 ₽

6× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+10 870.13 ₽ +536.2% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 13%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 863 ₽

6× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0836

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

+7 422.90 ₽ +196.5% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 300 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+7 330.77 ₽ +198.4% chance of profit 54%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 248 ₽

1× StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859

Variant 6 only The Falchion Collection

+921.04 ₽ +78.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 6 202.32 ₽ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −588 ₽

2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

157.38 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

884.38 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

44.57 ₽

at 44.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 086.33 ₽ +828.91 (+76.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −485 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

157.38 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

758.04 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

89.14 ₽

at 44.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 004.56 ₽ +736.78 (+73.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −434 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

157.38 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

631.70 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

133.71 ₽

at 44.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 922.79 ₽ +644.65 (+69.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −383 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

157.38 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

505.36 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

178.28 ₽

at 44.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 841.02 ₽ +552.52 (+65.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −332 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

157.38 ₽

at 78.69

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

379.02 ₽

at 126.34

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

222.85 ₽

at 44.57

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 759.25 ₽ +460.39 (+60.6%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 54%
Losing outcome 46%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

627.68 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

1 542.00 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

2 054.89 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

655.34 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

7 132.67 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion

Factory New

316.22 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure

Factory New

433.47 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call

Factory New

506.28 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

318.68 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother

Factory New

438.65 ₽ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +699.18 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +815.86 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Fracture Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 18 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1727613 · The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 865.54₽ · invest 1 162.92₽
profit on prices without salesat least −588 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074334 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003792 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727830 · The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 849.93₽ · invest 1 172.53₽
profit on prices without salesat least −634 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727884 · The Falchion Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 846.89₽ · invest 1 150.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −526 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727419 · The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 840.48₽ · invest 1 143.71₽
profit on prices without salesat least −580 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Amber Slipstream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074544 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003976 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1720388 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 837.92₽ · invest 1 138.18₽
profit on prices without salesat least −520 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727476 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 836.99₽ · invest 1 083.12₽
profit on prices without salesat least −521 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074672 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004088 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1725764 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 835.61₽ · invest 1 070.57₽
profit on prices without salesat least −522 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)
Craft 1727365 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 834.23₽ · invest 1 155.35₽
profit on prices without salesat least −600 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074417 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003865 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727311 · The Falchion Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 833.84₽ · invest 1 116.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −535 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1717343 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 826.80₽ · invest 1 113.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −579 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074611 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004034 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727640 · The Falchion Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 824.40₽ · invest 1 115.56₽
profit on prices without salesat least −547 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074593 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004019 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1721410 · The Chroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 823.84₽ · invest 1 171.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −620 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1722231 · The Clutch Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 821.06₽ · invest 1 100.87₽
profit on prices without salesat least −537 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074544 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003976 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727754 · The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 818.28₽ · invest 1 092.42₽
profit on prices without salesat least −548 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074723 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004133 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727942 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 817.92₽ · invest 1 114.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −547 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1727718 · The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 815.05₽ · invest 1 097.30₽
profit on prices without salesat least −543 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)
Craft 1727911 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 813.65₽ · invest 1 098.89₽
profit on prices without salesat least −552 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003925 instead of 0.004088
Craft 1716401 · The Breakout Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 810.21₽ · invest 1 115.28₽
profit on prices without salesat least −566 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074334 instead of 0.074673; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003792 instead of 0.004088

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build