Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 0.5240 ₴. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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The Falchion Collection + The Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1727507 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +15 951.87₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 10 298.44₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 26 250.31₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +154.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 26 239.93₴ · profit at most +10.38₴ (at most +0.0%) · chance of profit at most 90%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 37.68 → 81.39 ₴
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 969.39 → 2093.88 ₴
MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 9291.38 → 24064.66 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −10 254 ₴ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −10 254 ₴: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Mirage Collection
+15 951.87 ₴ +154.9% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −10 254 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Mirage Collection
+1 165.02 ₴ +310.3% chance of profit 42%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 6 110.12 ₴ · chance 18%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Mirage Collection
+395.28 ₴ +93.3% chance of profit 36%
expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 5 006.99 ₴ · chance 8.0%
rare inputs
  • 6× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Mirage Collection
+258.95 ₴ +61.2% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 1 115.31 ₴ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 only The Mirage Collection
+17 694.90 ₴ +154.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −11 422 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+16 334.04 ₴ +151.8% chance of profit 95%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 29 117.09 ₴ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −10 760 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
UMP-45 | Riot
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
37.68 ₴
at 37.68
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003982f′ (normalized) 0.005689wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 174 · good ≈ 10
on the market with this float, usually ~11, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 112.71 ₴ · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 174) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
UMP-45 | Blaze
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
969.39 ₴
at 969.39
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003982f′ (normalized) 0.049786wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 91 · good ≈ 7
on the market with this float, usually ~7, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 2 619.97 ₴ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 5 of 396 · from 967.71 ₴ (float 0.0037) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
MAC-10 | Amber Fade
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0039
9 291.38 ₴
at 1 161.42
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.003982f′ (normalized) 0.009957wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 37 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 62 · from 3 458.78 ₴ (float 0.0039) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 10 298.44 ₴ +15 951.87 (+154.9%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.070000, 0.008108, 0.013513, 0.007027, 0.006757, 0.146892 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 6 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 90%
  • Losing outcome 10%
in profit
best
MAG-7 | Bulldozer
Factory New
33 484.65 ₴ 90.00%
price without deals
Steam MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)net 29117.09 you get 0.070000The Mirage Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 9 119.35 ₴ (you get 7 929.87)) · buy orders: 202 sell on Market.CSGO: 10 449.93 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 11 458.26 · lots 4 CSFloat: price does not match Steam — not shown CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: price does not match Steam — not shown
at a loss
FAMAS | Neural Net
Factory New
312.92 ₴ 2.00%
Steam FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)net 272.11 you get 0.008108 sells 28 a week sell now to a buy order: 292.62 ₴ (you get 254.45)) · buy orders: 9026 sell on Market.CSGO: 237.22 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 260.12 · lots 88 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 239.68 ₴ listings: 122 on CS.Money: ~ 246.86 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 241.48 ₴ listings: 275
at a loss
P2000 | Handgun
Factory New
897.69 ₴ 2.00%
Steam P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)net 780.59 you get 0.013513 sells 15 a week sell now to a buy order: 861.83 ₴ (you get 749.42)) · buy orders: 2687 sell on Market.CSGO: 743.37 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 815.10 · lots 25 on CSFloat: from 642.74 ₴ listings: 68 on CS.Money: ~ 682.24 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 703.79 ₴ listings: 71
at a loss
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
Factory New
435.68 ₴ 2.00%
Steam M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)net 378.85 you get 0.007027 sells 147 a week sell now to a buy order: 424.90 ₴ (you get 369.48)) · buy orders: 15649 sell on Market.CSGO: 361.78 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 396.69 · lots 47 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 333.04 ₴ listings: 532 on CS.Money: ~ 399.02 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 354.59 ₴ listings: 753
at a loss
worst
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
260.24 ₴ 2.00%
Steam MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)net 226.30 you get 0.006757 sells 95 a week sell now to a buy order: 251.53 ₴ (you get 218.72)) · buy orders: 15545 sell on Market.CSGO: 196.46 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 215.41 · lots 33 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 197.49 ₴ listings: 214 on CS.Money: ~ 207.37 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 199.74 ₴ listings: 256
at a loss
Negev | Loudmouth
Minimal Wear
677.06 ₴ 2.00%
Steam Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)net 588.74 you get 0.146892 sells ≈4 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 565.20 ₴ (you get 491.47)) · buy orders: 702 sell on Market.CSGO: 428.11 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 469.42 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 444.36 ₴ listings: 21 on Lis-Skins: from 479.37 ₴ listings: 9
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