The Falchion Collection
+ The Operation Broken Fang Collection
StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1727543 · ways to build: 5StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+10 164.61₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».26 063.32₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.36 227.93₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+39.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.45%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 67 900.31₴
· profit at most −31 672.37₴
(at most -46.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) × 16% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.161374.98 → 2969.95 ₴
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) × 96% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.6324688.35 → 64930.36 ₴
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 075 ₴Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 075 ₴: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New), StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New), StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0041
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 374.98 ₴
at 1 374.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004195f′ (normalized) 0.013110wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×9
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0747
(0% of this wear's listings)
24 688.35 ₴
at 2 743.15
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074794f′ (normalized) 0.076320wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs26 063.32 ₴
+10 164.61
(+39.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.070000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −9 432 ₴
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×8
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0758
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
5 868.65 ₴
at 733.58
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075833f′ (normalized) 0.075833wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×1
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0051
(0% of this wear's listings)
1 374.98 ₴
at 1 374.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005104f′ (normalized) 0.015950wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×1
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0758
(0% of this wear's listings)
2 743.15 ₴
at 2 743.15
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075833f′ (normalized) 0.077381wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs9 986.77 ₴
+5 631.51
(+56.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.056000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −10 336 ₴
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0754
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
2 934.32 ₴
at 733.58
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075473f′ (normalized) 0.075473wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×4
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0047
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 499.90 ₴
at 1 374.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004789f′ (normalized) 0.014966wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×2
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1657
(0% of this wear's listings)
3 010.71 ₴
at 1 505.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165736f′ (normalized) 0.169118wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Set · 10 pcs11 444.94 ₴
+6 749.55
(+59.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.056000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −14 702 ₴
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0752
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
733.58 ₴
at 733.58
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075252f′ (normalized) 0.075252wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×4
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0045
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 499.90 ₴
at 1 374.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004595f′ (normalized) 0.014361wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×2
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1650
(0% of this wear's listings)
3 010.71 ₴
at 1 505.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165099f′ (normalized) 0.168469wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×3
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0752
(0% of this wear's listings)
8 229.45 ₴
at 2 743.15
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075252f′ (normalized) 0.076787wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs17 473.64 ₴
+8 449.46
(+48.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.056000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −16 157 ₴
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×4
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0045
(0% of this wear's listings)
5 499.90 ₴
at 1 374.98
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004531f′ (normalized) 0.014160wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 14 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
×2
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1648
(0% of this wear's listings)
3 010.71 ₴
at 1 505.36
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.164888f′ (normalized) 0.168253wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
×4
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0751
(0% of this wear's listings)
10 972.60 ₴
at 2 743.15
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075178f′ (normalized) 0.076712wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs19 483.21 ₴
+9 016.10
(+46.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.070000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%
at a loss
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir
Factory New
12 748.80 ₴45.00%
SteamStatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)net 11085.91you get 0.070000The Operation Broken Fang Collectionsells 1 a weeksell now to a buy order: 11 384.16 ₴
(you get 9 899.27)) · buy orders: 1715
sell on Market.CSGO: 10 315.86 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 11 311.26 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 9 644.75 ₴listings: 14
on CS.Money: ~ 10 591.80 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 10 555.00 ₴listings: 28
sell now to a buy order: 54 192.01 ₴
(you get 47 123.48)) · buy orders: 1968
sell on Market.CSGO: 43 014.18 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 47 164.67 · lots 11
on CSFloat: from 41 848.80 ₴listings: 56
on CS.Money: ~ 48 482.26 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 43 977.22 ₴listings: 53
at a loss
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Factory New
17 421.44 ₴5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)net 15149.08you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 14 762.83 ₴
(you get 12 837.24)) · buy orders: 647
sell on Market.CSGO: 12 322.34 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 13 511.34 · lots 12
on CSFloat: from 11 400.62 ₴listings: 48
on CS.Money: ~ 13 182.53 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 12 829.29 ₴listings: 48
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast
Factory New
12 575.33 ₴5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)net 10935.07you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 380.15 ₴
(you get 9 895.78)) · buy orders: 930
sell on Market.CSGO: 11 914.10 ₴ to your card
cheapest lot 13 063.70 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 9 217.45 ₴listings: 25
on CS.Money: ~ 9 872.76 ₴
on Lis-Skins: from 9 343.57 ₴listings: 32
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+8 576.55 ₴a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+9 792.65 ₴historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Operation Broken Fang Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
22 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1717702
· The CS20 Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 10 412.64₴
· invest 25 433.48₴
profit on prices without salesat least −20 303 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075025 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1736051
· The Kilowatt Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 10 308.91₴
· invest 25 550.71₴
profit on prices without salesat least −20 197 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075447 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1729353
· The Fracture Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 10 264.83₴
· invest 25 219.12₴
profit on prices without salesat least −20 078 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075226 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1737419
· The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 10 247.96₴
· invest 25 385.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −19 687 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075476 instead of 0.074794
profit on prices without salesat least −21 005 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075559 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1737325
· The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 10 040.60₴
· invest 25 768.64₴
profit on prices without salesat least −20 780 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074722 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1737459
· The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 9 964.36₴
· invest 25 661.98₴
profit on prices without salesat least −20 400 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075680 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1728478
· The Fever Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 9 961.11₴
· invest 26 129.33₴
profit on prices without salesat least −20 182 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075680 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1737623
· The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 9 942.27₴
· invest 26 288.59₴
profit on prices without salesat least −21 300 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075303 instead of 0.074794
Craft 1734793
· The Horizon Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 9 920.30₴
· invest 26 484.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −21 496 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075559 instead of 0.074794
profit on prices without salesat least −21 929 ₴rare inputs
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075680 instead of 0.074794
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
