Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1727598 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +716.71₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 704.31₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 421.02₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +42.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 80%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 4 134.98₽ · profit at most −1 713.96₽ (at most -41.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 295.53 → 667.90 ₽
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 197.02 → 425.56 ₽
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 1211.76 → 3041.52 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection
+716.71 ₽ +42.1% chance of profit 80%
expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear) · 3 848.91 ₽ · chance 35%
  • 3× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
  • 1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
  • 6× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection
+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%
sells slowly
  • 4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection
+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
  • 8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 119.11 ₽ +40.0% chance of profit 95%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 8 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection
+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+1 767.22 ₽ +59.2% chance of profit 40%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
  • 9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3
Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1627
295.53 ₽
at 98.51
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162774f′ (normalized) 0.044656wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 218 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 371.79 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 128) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
XM1014 | Monster Melt
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1627
197.02 ₽
at 197.02
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162774f′ (normalized) 0.217032wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 423 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 412 · from 1 320.85 ₽ (float 0.1505) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×6
AUG | Eye of Zapems
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1627
1 211.76 ₽
at 201.96
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.162774f′ (normalized) 0.191499wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 401 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 457) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 1 704.31 ₽ +716.71 (+42.0%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.149999900 result 0.150000, 0.120000, 0.150000, 0.048000, 0.150000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 5 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 80%
  • Losing outcome 20%
in profit
best
AWP | Crakow!
Minimal Wear
4 426.25 ₽ 35.00%
Steam AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear)net 3848.91 you get 0.150000The Overpass 2024 Collection sells 109 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 3 266.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 3 582.00 · lots 63 on CSFloat: from 2 992.04 ₽ listings: 286 on CS.Money: ~ 3 236.16 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 3 139.37 ₽ listings: 357
in profit
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore
Minimal Wear
2 386.62 ₽ 35.00%
Steam Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear)net 2075.32 you get 0.120000The Overpass 2024 Collection sells 32 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 237.60 ₽ (you get 1 945.73)) · buy orders: 1552 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 202.40 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 414.92 · lots 26 on CSFloat: from 1 710.59 ₽ listings: 175 on CS.Money: ~ 1 781.69 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 719.16 ₽ listings: 220
at a loss
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Minimal Wear
822.81 ₽ 10.00%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)net 715.49 you get 0.150000 sells 32 a week sell now to a buy order: 783.16 ₽ (you get 681.00)) · buy orders: 1955 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 616.74 ₽ listings: 33 on CS.Money: ~ 654.43 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 688.69 ₽ listings: 39
in profit
MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 385.76 ₽ 10.00%
Steam MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)net 2074.57 you get 0.048000 sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 380.08 ₽ (you get 2 069.63)) · buy orders: 2273 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 987.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 179.62 · lots 43 on CSFloat: from 1 884.48 ₽ listings: 91 on CS.Money: ~ 1 960.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 879.34 ₽ listings: 112
at a loss
worst
SG 553 | Cyrex
Minimal Wear
788.11 ₽ 10.00%
Steam SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)net 685.31 you get 0.150000 sells 56 a week sell now to a buy order: 743.00 ₽ (you get 646.08)) · buy orders: 4267 sell on Market.CSGO: 673.48 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 738.47 · lots 23 on CSFloat: from 593.61 ₽ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 619.31 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 651.86 ₽ listings: 63
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