Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

Classified → Covert About the craft Craft 1727743 · ways to build: 3 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +920.42₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 5 813.86₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 6 734.28₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +15.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 14 173.66₽ · profit at most −7 439.37₽ (at most -52.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 788.11 → 1702.32 ₽
P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) × 2 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 1012.72 → 2238.11 ₽
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) × 7 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 4013.03 → 10233.23 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection
+920.42 ₽ +15.8% chance of profit 90%
expensive: USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 709.81 ₽ · chance 45%
rare inputs
  • 1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 2× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 7× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
Variant 2 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 686.86 ₽ +46.2% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 10 178.43 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 7 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 3 The Revolution Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 340.05 ₽ +40.2% chance of profit 100%
expensive: M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) · 8 841.97 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly
  • 1× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
  • 1× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
  • 8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
Variant 4 The Genesis Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+1 819.71 ₽ +29.6% chance of profit 90%
expensive: AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) · 9 724.13 ₽ · chance 45%
rare inputs
  • 1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
  • 8× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 1× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 5 The Gallery Collection instead of The Recoil Collection
+1 725.85 ₽ +19.6% chance of profit 90%
expensive: M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) · 12 264.92 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 9 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771
  • 2× UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1705
  • 7× UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771
Variant 6 only The Recoil Collection
+1 343.14 ₽ +24.0% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 7 709.81 ₽ · chance 50%
  • 2× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 8× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

How to build Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
SG 553 | Cyrex
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0758
788.11 ₽
at 788.11
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075851f′ (normalized) 0.075851wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 54 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
×2
P250 | Visions
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0758
1 012.72 ₽
at 506.36
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075851f′ (normalized) 0.108359wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 202 · good ≈ 3
on the market with this float, usually ~4, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 1 855.21 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
×7
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0758
4 013.03 ₽
at 573.29
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075851f′ (normalized) 0.075851wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 253 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day
Set · 10 pcs 5 813.86 ₽ +920.42 (+15.8%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.082352841 result 0.057647, 0.070000, 0.082353, 0.082353 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 4 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 90%
  • Losing outcome 10%
in profit
AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Factory New
7 100.73 ₽ 45.00%
Steam AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)net 6174.55 you get 0.057647The Recoil Collection sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 7 133.54 ₽ (you get 6 203.07)) · buy orders: 2825 sell on Market.CSGO: 5 836.79 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 6 399.99 · lots 40 on CSFloat: from 5 330.50 ₽ listings: 184 on CS.Money: ~ 5 700.55 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 5 676.56 ₽ listings: 176
in profit
best
USP-S | Printstream
Factory New
8 866.28 ₽ 45.00%
Steam USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)net 7709.81 you get 0.070000The Recoil Collection sells 33 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 7 742.83 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 8 489.95 · lots 45 on CSFloat: from 7 423.13 ₽ listings: 245 on CS.Money: ~ 8 402.20 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 7 993.62 ₽ listings: 196
at a loss
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Minimal Wear
6 264.01 ₽ 5.00%
Steam AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)net 5446.97 you get 0.082353 sells 50 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 978.41 ₽ (you get 5 198.61)) · buy orders: 1476 sell on Market.CSGO: 4 560.00 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 5 000.00 · lots 25 on CSFloat: from 4 539.88 ₽ listings: 171 on CS.Money: ~ 5 402.46 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 4 738.61 ₽ listings: 466
at a loss
worst
AWP | Hyper Beast
Minimal Wear
4 921.43 ₽ 5.00%
Steam AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)net 4279.50 you get 0.082353 sells ≈59 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 4 908.37 ₽ (you get 4 268.14)) · buy orders: 1555 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 871.20 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 4 244.74 · lots 47 on CSFloat: from 3 728.70 ₽ listings: 215 on CS.Money: ~ 4 067.05 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 3 982.25 ₽ listings: 297
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