Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection

Classified → Covert About the craft Craft 1727775 · ways to build: 3 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 141.07₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 5 391.55₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 6 532.62₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +21.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 13 207.97₽ · profit at most −6 675.35₽ (at most -50.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 453.16 → 978.83 ₽
AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 1069.84 → 2364.35 ₽
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 3868.55 → 9864.80 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection
+1 141.07 ₽ +21.2% chance of profit 50%
expensive: M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) · 8 841.97 ₽ · chance 45%
  • 1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1639
  • 2× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
  • 7× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
Variant 2 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 677.81 ₽ +43.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 10 178.43 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly цена ненадёжна Первые пять годных лотов отличаются в разы: дешёвый может оказаться единственным. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 7 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× AWP | Duality (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0061
  • 8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
Variant 3 only The Revolution Collection
+2 317.79 ₽ +38.8% chance of profit 100%
expensive: M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) · 8 841.97 ₽ · chance 50%
sells slowly float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.
  • 9× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0769
  • 1× AWP | Duality (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
Variant 4 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+2 144.32 ₽ +32.7% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) · 14 528.03 ₽ · chance 5.0%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 5 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
  • 8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
  • 1× CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
Variant 5 The Genesis Collection instead of The Revolution Collection
+1 819.71 ₽ +29.6% chance of profit 90%
expensive: AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) · 9 724.13 ₽ · chance 45%
rare inputs
  • 1× SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
  • 8× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 1× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
+1 801.36 ₽ +27.4% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) · 9 586.35 ₽ · chance 5.0%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744
  • 1× AWP | Duality (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744

How to build Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
SG 553 | Cyrex
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1639
453.16 ₽
at 453.16
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163939f′ (normalized) 0.163939wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 96 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×2
AWP | Duality
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0748
1 069.84 ₽
at 534.92
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074848f′ (normalized) 0.093560wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 461 · good ≈ 11
on the market with this float, usually ~11, new ~0.34 per day, cheapest usually 934.40 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
×7
P2000 | Wicked Sick
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0748
3 868.55 ₽
at 552.65
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074848f′ (normalized) 0.074848wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 394 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 5 391.55 ₽ +1 141.07 (+21.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.087500, 0.070000, 0.087500, 0.087500 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 4 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 50%
  • About break-even 5%
at a loss
AK-47 | Head Shot
Minimal Wear
5 283.38 ₽ 45.00%
Steam AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)net 4594.24 you get 0.087500The Revolution Collection sells 188 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 258.36 ₽ (you get 4 572.48)) · buy orders: 4758
in profit
best
M4A4 | Temukau
Factory New
10 168.27 ₽ 45.00%
Steam M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)net 8841.97 you get 0.070000The Revolution Collection sells 48 a week sell now to a buy order: 9 835.87 ₽ (you get 8 552.93)) · buy orders: 8698
about break-even
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Minimal Wear
6 264.01 ₽ 5.00%
Steam AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)net 5446.97 you get 0.087500 sells 50 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 978.41 ₽ (you get 5 198.61)) · buy orders: 1476
at a loss
worst
AWP | Hyper Beast
Minimal Wear
4 921.43 ₽ 5.00%
Steam AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)net 4279.50 you get 0.087500 sells ≈59 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 4 908.37 ₽ (you get 4 268.14)) · buy orders: 1555
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