Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1728021 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 037.24₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 036.74₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 073.98₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +100.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 100%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 578.23₽ · profit at most −504.25₽ (at most -19.6%) · chance of profit at most 3%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 90.64 → 195.78 ₽
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 788.08 → 2041.13 ₽
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 158.02 → 341.32 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection
+1 037.24 ₽ +100.0% chance of profit 100%
expensive: P250 | Cartel (Factory New) · 3 088.57 ₽ · chance 3.3%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
  • 8× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
  • 1× Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%
sells slowly
  • 4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
  • 3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
  • 8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
  • 6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 701.97 ₽ +97.5% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 40%
sells slowly
  • 6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
  • 4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
Variant 6 The Graphic Design Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection
+1 644.72 ₽ +45.7% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New) · 17 804.34 ₽ · chance 15%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 7× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
  • 3× CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
P2000 | Handgun
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1637
90.64 ₽
at 90.64
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163747f′ (normalized) 0.163747wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 160 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 72) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×8
Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1637
788.08 ₽
at 98.51
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163747f′ (normalized) 0.046563wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 218 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 661.95 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 128) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1637
158.02 ₽
at 158.02
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163747f′ (normalized) 0.163747wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 30 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 2 of 43 · from 207.29 ₽ (float 0.1603) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 1 036.74 ₽ +1 037.24 (+100.0%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.070000, 0.022400, 0.070000, 0.052500, 0.070000, 0.035000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 6 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 100%
  • Losing outcome 0%
in profit
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Factory New
2 305.66 ₽ 30.00%
Steam CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)net 2004.92 you get 0.070000 sells 7 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 116.16 ₽ (you get 1 840.13)) · buy orders: 693 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 859.60 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 039.04 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 1 666.91 ₽ listings: 45 on CS.Money: ~ 1 733.72 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 731.15 ₽ listings: 45
in profit
MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 385.76 ₽ 30.00%
Steam MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)net 2074.57 you get 0.022400 sells 34 a week sell now to a buy order: 2 380.08 ₽ (you get 2 069.63)) · buy orders: 2273 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 987.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 179.62 · lots 43 on CSFloat: from 1 884.48 ₽ listings: 91 on CS.Money: ~ 1 960.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 879.34 ₽ listings: 112
in profit
worst
SG 553 | Cyrex
Factory New
2 275.90 ₽ 30.00%
price without deals
Steam SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)net 1979.04 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 2 255.77 ₽ (you get 1 961.53)) · buy orders: 1006 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 995.93 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 188.53 · lots 16 on CSFloat: from 1 786.83 ₽ listings: 66 on CS.Money: ~ 1 814.24 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 898.18 ₽ listings: 101
in profit
best
P250 | Cartel
Factory New
3 551.86 ₽ 3.33%
price without deals
Steam P250 | Cartel (Factory New)net 3088.57 you get 0.052500The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 2 752.70 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 3 018.32 · lots 16 on CSFloat: from 2 412.13 ₽ listings: 54 on CS.Money: ~ 2 638.27 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 666.54 ₽ listings: 73
in profit
SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
2 827.56 ₽ 3.33%
price without deals
Steam SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)net 2458.75 you get 0.070000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 1 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 2 603.84 ₽ (you get 2 264.20)) · buy orders: 296 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 490.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 731.16 · lots 13 on CSFloat: from 2 272.51 ₽ listings: 33 on CS.Money: ~ 2 333.33 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 2 400.14 ₽ listings: 43
in profit
XM1014 | Tranquility
Factory New
2 467.06 ₽ 3.33%
price without deals
Steam XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)net 2145.27 you get 0.035000The Vanguard Collection
by lot · 2 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 1 857.97 ₽ (you get 1 615.62)) · buy orders: 1237 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 674.22 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 835.77 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 1 514.44 ₽ listings: 71 on CS.Money: ~ 1 647.21 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 660.05 ₽ listings: 96
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