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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +10 669.82₽

Invest 14 535.45₽

Average return 25 205.27₽

ROI +73.4%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 35 902.56₽ · profit at most −10 697.29₽ (at most -29.8%) · chance of profit at most 50%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 2483.25 → 6133.63 ₽

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 12052.20 → 29768.93 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −13 856 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+10 669.82 ₽ +73.4% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 55 811.32 ₽ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 856 ₽

5× MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
5× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+2 270.59 ₽ +78.1% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 20%

sells slowly

4× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
3× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+2 186.20 ₽ +50.6% chance of profit 80%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 40%

sells slowly

2× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
8× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 828.95 ₽ +68.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 701.97 ₽ +97.5% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 40%

sells slowly

6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 6 The Graphic Design Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 644.72 ₽ +45.7% chance of profit 30%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New) · 17 804.34 ₽ · chance 15%

sells slowly

7× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
3× CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

2 483.25 ₽

at 496.65

Steam

×5

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

12 052.20 ₽

at 2 410.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14 535.45 ₽ +10 669.82 (+73.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −5 258 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

98.51 ₽

at 98.51

Steam

×8

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

3 973.20 ₽

at 496.65

Steam

×1

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

2 410.44 ₽

at 2 410.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 482.15 ₽ +174.51 (+2.7%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Red Laminate

Factory New

64 183.02 ₽ 25.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | BOOM

Factory New

47 116.35 ₽ 25.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Factory New

2 305.66 ₽ 16.67%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

2 385.76 ₽ 16.67%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SG 553 | Cyrex

Factory New

2 275.90 ₽ 16.67%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5 940.19 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +9 481.75 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1726783 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 12 331.65₽ · invest 12 602.20₽
profit on prices without salesat least −11 864 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)
Craft 1723307 · The Clutch Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 12 164.97₽ · invest 12 721.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −12 031 ₽ rare inputs

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074592 instead of 0.074357
Craft 1709183 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 10 326.40₽ · invest 24 041.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −24 042 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074137 instead of 0.074357
Craft 1743231 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 10 256.10₽ · invest 16 208.05₽
profit on prices without salesat least −15 287 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)
Craft 1743256 · The eSports 2013 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 9 956.14₽ · invest 17 321.90₽
profit on prices without salesat least −16 067 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)
Craft 1706504 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 9 840.56₽ · invest 29 416.08₽
profit on prices without salesat least −29 416 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074137 instead of 0.074357
Craft 1739404 · The Phoenix Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 9 735.41₽ · invest 12 533.70₽
profit on prices without salesat least −9 621 ₽ rare inputs

USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074218 instead of 0.074357

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build