Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1728110 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 779.74₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 2 383.47₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 4 163.21₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +74.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 36%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 6 234.73₽ · profit at most −2 071.52₽ (at most -33.2%) · chance of profit at most 18%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 71.91 → 155.33 ₽
XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) × 9 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 2311.56 → 6079.40 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 274 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 274 ₽: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New), PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
+1 779.74 ₽ +74.7% chance of profit 36%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 274 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0859
Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
+2 223.35 ₽ +310.3% chance of profit 42%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 11 660.68 ₽ · chance 18%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
  • 9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
+754.37 ₽ +93.3% chance of profit 36%
expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 9 555.43 ₽ · chance 8.0%
rare inputs
  • 6× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
  • 4× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
+494.18 ₽ +61.2% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 5 The Mirage Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
+30 442.85 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 90%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 90%
profit on prices without salesat least −19 568 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
  • 8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
Variant 6 The Overpass Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
+6 702.48 ₽ +77.5% chance of profit 90%
expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 20 866.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 559 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069
  • 9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
UMP-45 | Riot
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0059
71.91 ₽
at 71.91
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005912f′ (normalized) 0.008445wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 174 · good ≈ 12
on the market with this float, usually ~14, new ~0.5 per day, cheapest usually 215.09 ₽ · little data: 2.0 d.
×9
XM1014 | Red Python
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0800–0.0859
2 311.56 ₽
at 256.84
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.085912f′ (normalized) 0.014076wear 0.0800–0.1500on the market 42 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 3 815.10 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 2 383.47 ₽ +1 779.74 (+74.7%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.002703, 0.001081, 0.070000, 0.008108, 0.013513, 0.007027, 0.006757, 0.146892 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 10 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 36%
  • Losing outcome 64%
at a loss
PP-Bizon | Blue Streak
Factory New
1 500.00 ₽ 18.00%
price without deals
Steam PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)net 1304.35 you get 0.070000The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 1 156.09 ₽ (you get 1 005.29)) · buy orders: 826
in profit
best
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web
Factory New
18 009.07 ₽ 18.00%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 15660.06 you get 0.070000The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 14 852.30 ₽ (you get 12 915.04)) · buy orders: 1148
in profit
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption
Factory New
3 837.77 ₽ 18.00%
Steam Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)net 3337.19 you get 0.002703The eSports 2014 Summer Collection sells 43 a week sell now to a buy order: 3 905.28 ₽ (you get 3 395.89)) · buy orders: 5644
at a loss
MP7 | Ocean Foam
Factory New
1 060.53 ₽ 18.00%
Steam MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)net 922.20 you get 0.001081The eSports 2014 Summer Collection sells 28 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 062.38 ₽ (you get 923.80)) · buy orders: 3956
at a loss
P90 | Virus
Factory New
1 643.05 ₽ 18.00%
Steam P90 | Virus (Factory New)net 1428.74 you get 0.070000The eSports 2014 Summer Collection sells 1 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 638.04 ₽ (you get 1 424.38)) · buy orders: 1297
at a loss
FAMAS | Neural Net
Factory New
597.19 ₽ 2.00%
Steam FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)net 519.30 you get 0.008108 sells 28 a week sell now to a buy order: 558.44 ₽ (you get 485.60)) · buy orders: 9026
at a loss
P2000 | Handgun
Factory New
1 713.16 ₽ 2.00%
Steam P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)net 1489.70 you get 0.013513 sells 15 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 644.73 ₽ (you get 1 430.20)) · buy orders: 2687
at a loss
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
Factory New
831.46 ₽ 2.00%
Steam M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)net 723.01 you get 0.007027 sells 147 a week sell now to a buy order: 810.89 ₽ (you get 705.12)) · buy orders: 15649
at a loss
worst
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
Factory New
496.65 ₽ 2.00%
Steam MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)net 431.87 you get 0.006757 sells 95 a week sell now to a buy order: 480.03 ₽ (you get 417.41)) · buy orders: 15545
at a loss
Negev | Loudmouth
Minimal Wear
1 292.11 ₽ 2.00%
Steam Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)net 1123.57 you get 0.146892 sells ≈4 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 1 078.64 ₽ (you get 937.94)) · buy orders: 702
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