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The Fracture Collection + The Recoil Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Classified

Average profit +645.18₽

Invest 1 371.03₽

Average return 2 016.21₽

ROI +47.1%

Chance of profit 67%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 272.39₽ · profit at most −1 256.18₽ (at most -38.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 116.24 → 251.08 ₽

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) × 5 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 511.75 → 1264.02 ₽

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) × 4 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 743.04 → 1757.29 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −7 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Fracture Collection + The Recoil Collection

+645.18 ₽ +47.1% chance of profit 67%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) · 2 984.23 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 ₽

1× StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0751
5× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0751
4× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 2 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+904.69 ₽ +57.8% chance of profit 67%

expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) · 3 576.50 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
8× StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
1× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043

Variant 3 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

+513.25 ₽ +28.7% chance of profit 33%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) · 7 939.24 ₽ · chance 13%

sells slowly

2× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
4× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
4× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1634

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

+53 815.97 ₽ +95.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) · 139 259.75 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 923 ₽

1× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
6× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
3× StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+53 611.13 ₽ +95.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) · 139 259.75 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 056 ₽

1× StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
6× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
3× StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

+7 896.43 ₽ +67.3% chance of profit 60%

expensive: StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) · 35 000.00 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −11 589 ₽

1× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055
2× StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
7× StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0055

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

116.24 ₽

at 116.24

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

511.75 ₽

at 102.35

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

743.04 ₽

at 185.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 371.03 ₽ +645.18 (+47.1%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

708.00 ₽

at 118.00

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

204.70 ₽

at 102.35

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

371.52 ₽

at 185.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 284.22 ₽ +360.06 (+28.0%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1650

119.68 ₽

at 59.84

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

354.00 ₽

at 118.00

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

102.35 ₽

at 102.35

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

743.04 ₽

at 185.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 319.07 ₽ +399.59 (+30.3%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

116.24 ₽

at 116.24

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

944.00 ₽

at 118.00

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

185.76 ₽

at 185.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 246.00 ₽ +175.12 (+14.1%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

826.00 ₽

at 118.00

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

73.19 ₽

at 73.19

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

371.52 ₽

at 185.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 270.71 ₽ +299.18 (+23.5%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 67%
Losing outcome 33%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled

Factory New

3 431.86 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions

Factory New

1 280.69 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

Factory New

2 500.00 ₽ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue

Factory New

2 157.22 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy

Factory New

1 907.75 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

581.26 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +367.79 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +579.89 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fracture Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1722911 · The Clutch Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 693.47₽ · invest 1 366.64₽
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1740788 · The Recoil Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 688.08₽ · invest 1 441.11₽
profit on prices without salesat least −176 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074446 instead of 0.075167; StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New): float at most 0.003890 instead of 0.004521
Craft 1740609 · The Recoil Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 683.20₽ · invest 1 360.79₽
profit on prices without salesat least −24 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076502 instead of 0.075167; StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New): float at most 0.005689 instead of 0.004521
Craft 1720933 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 632.44₽ · invest 1 460.75₽
profit on prices without salesat least −190 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076502 instead of 0.075167; StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New): float at most 0.005689 instead of 0.004521

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fracture Collection + The Recoil Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build