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The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +7 453.41₴

Invest 7 936.75₴

Average return 15 390.16₴

ROI +93.9%

Chance of profit 60%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 19 869.27₴ · profit at most −4 479.10₴ (at most -22.5%) · chance of profit at most 60%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 358.41 → 847.64 ₴

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 7578.33 → 19021.62 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −7 761 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+7 453.42 ₴ +93.9% chance of profit 60%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 29 244.79 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 761 ₴

4× MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
6× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 248.71 ₴ +56.0% chance of profit 30%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 9 387.45 ₴ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1634
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+1 121.24 ₴ +44.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 4 140.99 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0769

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+912.88 ₴ +64.3% chance of profit 30%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 6 651.70 ₴ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744
2× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1628
7× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1628

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+799.40 ₴ +42.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 2 929.77 ₴ · chance 90%

rare inputs

1× MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045
6× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
3× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+648.95 ₴ +66.7% chance of profit 60%

expensive: M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) · 3 557.00 ₴ · chance 30%

rare inputs

1× MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0769

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

358.41 ₴

at 89.60

Steam

×6

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

7 578.33 ₴

at 1 263.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7 936.75 ₴ +7 453.41 (+93.9%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 40%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Red Laminate

Factory New

33 631.51 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | BOOM

Factory New

24 688.68 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Vogue

Factory New

523.84 ₴ 13.33%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy

Factory New

676.35 ₴ 13.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

319.53 ₴ 13.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4 550.56 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6 732.97 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fracture Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 34 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −7 816 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −6 256 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −6 272 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −8 815 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −6 330 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −6 339 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −7 566 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −7 124 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −6 827 ₴ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −7 873 ₴ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) instead of MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 6; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074681 instead of 0.074330

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build