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The Horizon Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +28.07$

Invest 54.16$

Average return 82.23$

ROI +51.8%

Chance of profit 37%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 131.26$ · profit at most −49.03$ (at most -37.4%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) × 4 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 4.85 → 11.47 $

AWP | PAW (Factory New) × 5 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 42.87 → 105.88 $

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 6.44 → 13.91 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Horizon Collection + The Wildfire Collection

+28.07 $ +51.8% chance of profit 37%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1629
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 2 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+30.68 $ +155.1% chance of profit 67%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 13%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1636
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+29.31 $ +70.5% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 17%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
5× USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 4 The Revolution Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+29.16 $ +59.9% chance of profit 30%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) buy 0.2100–0.2188

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+28.95 $ +65.4% chance of profit 73%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 13%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
6× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045

Variant 6 only The Horizon Collection

+28.77 $ +51.1% chance of profit 33%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 33%

sells slowly

4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1629

4.85 $

at 1.21

Steam

×5

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

42.87 $

at 8.57

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

6.44 $

at 6.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 54.16 $ +28.07 (+51.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −32 $

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1636

1.21 $

at 1.21

Steam

×4

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

14.90 $

at 3.72

Steam

×5

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

32.20 $

at 6.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 48.31 $ +11.27 (+23.3%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

4.85 $

at 1.21

Steam

×4

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

34.29 $

at 8.57

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

12.88 $

at 6.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 52.02 $ +27.37 (+52.6%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

4.85 $

at 1.21

Steam

×3

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

25.72 $

at 8.57

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

19.32 $

at 6.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 49.89 $ +26.67 (+53.5%)

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1626

4.85 $

at 1.21

Steam

×2

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

17.15 $

at 8.57

Steam

×4

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

25.76 $

at 6.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 47.76 $ +25.98 (+54.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 63%

at a loss

FAMAS | Eye of Athena

Factory New

33.88 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Nightmare

Factory New

240.52 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Devourer

Factory New

19.04 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Elite Build

Factory New

88.28 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon

Factory New

77.63 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

29.87 $ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +11.08 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +23.96 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Horizon Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 22 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1735022 · The Horizon Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 29.16$ · invest 48.68$
sells slowly

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162022 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003658 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1735199 · The Horizon Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 28.73$ · invest 50.44$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New)
Craft 1735144 · The Horizon Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 28.66$ · invest 49.62$
sells slowly

Negev | dev_texture (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163312 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004051 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1734738 · The Horizon Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 28.63$ · invest 49.13$
sells slowly

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163270 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004038 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1724011 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 28.32$ · invest 49.89$
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163312 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004051 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1714973 · The Boreal Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 28.30$ · invest 51.29$
sells slowly

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163337 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004059 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1734980 · The Horizon Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 28.29$ · invest 49.31$
sells slowly

M249 | Downtown (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163312 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004051 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1717599 · The CS20 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 28.28$ · invest 50.55$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Aztec (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163423 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004085 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1735220 · The Horizon Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 28.00$ · invest 52.34$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163349 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004062 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1732479 · The Genesis Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 27.86$ · invest 51.57$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Ocular (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163609 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004141 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1734933 · The Horizon Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 27.85$ · invest 49.58$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162813 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003899 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1725090 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 27.83$ · invest 52.15$
sells slowly

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163609 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004141 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1729234 · The Fracture Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 27.82$ · invest 49.71$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163469 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004099 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1734849 · The Horizon Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 27.58$ · invest 55.41$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163423 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004085 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1735046 · The Horizon Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 27.42$ · invest 52.15$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163312 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004051 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1734897 · The Horizon Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 27.35$ · invest 51.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163609 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004141 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1721608 · The Chroma Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 27.13$ · invest 53.56$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163068 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003977 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1720656 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 26.96$ · invest 51.56$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163423 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004085 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1709596 · The Achroma Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 26.91$ · invest 53.76$
sells slowly

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163371 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004069 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1726892 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 26.57$ · invest 50.27$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162813 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.003899 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1713738 · The Ascent Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 26.55$ · invest 53.51$
sells slowly

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163243 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004030 instead of 0.003942
Craft 1735090 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 26.39$ · invest 53.34$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) instead of MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163272 instead of 0.162953; AWP | PAW (Factory New): float at most 0.004039 instead of 0.003942

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Horizon Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build