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The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +18 725.12₸

Invest 11 050.17₸

Average return 29 775.29₸

ROI +169.5%

Chance of profit 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 28 916.36₸ · profit at most +858.93₸ (at most +3.0%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 309.76 → 669.09 ₸

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 10740.41 → 28247.28 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −8 382 ₸

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

+18 725.14 ₸ +169.5% chance of profit 30%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 90 356.28 ₸ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 382 ₸

1× Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0077
9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0077

Variant 2 The Mirage Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+160 246.70 ₸ +154.7% chance of profit 90%

expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 293 084.12 ₸ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −103 529 ₸

1× Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
8× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+35 031.22 ₸ +77.0% chance of profit 90%

expensive: USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) · 110 060.11 ₸ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −45 461 ₸

1× Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068
9× XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068

Variant 4 only The Train 2025 Collection

+21 080.31 ₸ +176.6% chance of profit 33%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 90 356.28 ₸ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 038 ₸

10× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0079

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+20 838.15 ₸ +160.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 90 356.28 ₸ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 377 ₸

9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
1× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0245

Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Italy Collection

+20 007.17 ₸ +165.4% chance of profit 34%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 90 356.28 ₸ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 889 ₸

9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0073
1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0873

How to build

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Sawed-Off | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

309.76 ₸

at 309.76

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

10 740.41 ₸

at 1 193.38

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 050.17 ₸ +18 725.12 (+169.5%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

3 825.98 ₸ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

6 162.94 ₸ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

103 909.72 ₸ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

AWP | Pit Viper

Minimal Wear

720.22 ₸ 10.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +14 966.87 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +16 310.57 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Italy Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 20 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1713091 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 743.82₸ · invest 13 530.66₸
profit on prices without salesat least −10 668 ₸ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1714624 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 733.32₸ · invest 11 462.63₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 374 ₸

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1728919 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 732.21₸ · invest 11 087.67₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 375 ₸ rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008079 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1712346 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 717.98₸ · invest 11 660.37₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 389 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1735734 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 680.95₸ · invest 11 427.82₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 426 ₸ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006217 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1743019 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 18 678.26₸ · invest 11 055.82₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 429 ₸

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1737640 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 650.78₸ · invest 12 119.92₸
profit on prices without salesat least −9 183 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)
Craft 1742934 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 597.86₸ · invest 11 839.80₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 509 ₸ rare inputs

AUG | Signal Scanner (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1734153 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 506.97₸ · invest 12 013.96₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 600 ₸ rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)
Craft 1733630 · The Glove Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 492.37₸ · invest 12 766.88₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 797 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1711643 · The Anubis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 435.71₸ · invest 12 834.44₸
profit on prices without salesat least −9 994 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1707705 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 386.02₸ · invest 12 202.89₸
profit on prices without salesat least −9 424 ₸ rare inputs

AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1709080 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 348.48₸ · invest 13 667.69₸
profit on prices without salesat least −11 062 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007547 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1743065 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 18 333.55₸ · invest 12 166.65₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 773 ₸ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006807 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1727084 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 331.79₸ · invest 11 481.46₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 775 ₸

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)
Craft 1737973 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 168.66₸ · invest 13 587.83₸
profit on prices without salesat least −9 910 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1706467 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 120.27₸ · invest 15 960.77₸
profit on prices without salesat least −11 174 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1738371 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 18 061.87₸ · invest 12 440.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −9 249 ₸ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1712661 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 17 065.26₸ · invest 13 419.84₸
profit on prices without salesat least −10 042 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007752
Craft 1743037 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 16 963.06₸ · invest 13 405.92₸
profit on prices without salesat least −10 800 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007752

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build