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The Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Average profit +1 109.16₽

Invest 2 162.25₽

Average return 3 271.41₽

ROI +51.3%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 5 246.66₽ · profit at most −1 975.25₽ (at most -37.6%) · chance of profit at most 14%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) × 7 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 1241.31 → 3165.34 ₽

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 920.94 → 2081.32 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 205 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

+1 109.16 ₽ +51.3% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) · 8 381.23 ₽ · chance 14%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 205 ₽

7× Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 2 The Train Collection instead of The Mirage Collection

+1 000.82 ₽ +215.2% chance of profit 75%

expensive: Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) · 3 352.90 ₽ · chance 18%

sells slowly

7× Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
3× UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605

Variant 3 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Mirage Collection

+895.62 ₽ +169.2% chance of profit 70%

expensive: Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) · 3 352.90 ₽ · chance 18%

sells slowly

6× Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
1× Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605
3× Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

Variant 4 The Radiant Collection instead of The Mirage Collection

+860.21 ₽ +167.3% chance of profit 70%

expensive: Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) · 3 352.90 ₽ · chance 18%

sells slowly

6× Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0605
3× Nova | Marsh Grass (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036

Variant 5 The Office Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+19 244.25 ₽ +184.0% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New) · 93 834.50 ₽ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 935 ₽

5× Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
5× FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748

Variant 6 The Nuke Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+2 038.74 ₽ +53.6% chance of profit 70%

expensive: P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) · 9 565.22 ₽ · chance 17%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 280 ₽

5× Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
5× Souvenir MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

1 241.31 ₽

at 177.33

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

920.94 ₽

at 306.98

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 2 162.25 ₽ +1 109.16 (+51.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 643 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1 063.98 ₽

at 177.33

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

1 287.27 ₽

at 429.09

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

306.98 ₽

at 306.98

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 2 658.23 ₽ +988.49 (+37.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 528 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

886.65 ₽

at 177.33

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

1 287.27 ₽

at 429.09

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

33.18 ₽

at 33.18

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

306.98 ₽

at 306.98

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 2 514.08 ₽ +944.99 (+37.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 089 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

1 063.98 ₽

at 177.33

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

33.18 ₽

at 33.18

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

920.94 ₽

at 306.98

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 2 018.10 ₽ +1 065.66 (+52.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −974 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

886.65 ₽

at 177.33

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

66.36 ₽

at 33.18

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

920.94 ₽

at 306.98

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 1 873.95 ₽ +1 022.16 (+54.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 43%
About break-even 8%

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Groundwater

Factory New

9 638.42 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Orange Peel

Factory New

3 447.02 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Negev | CaliCamo

Factory New

1 457.01 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Gator Mesh

Factory New

1 501.00 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

SSG 08 | Tropical Storm

Factory New

6 004.21 ₽ 14.00%

Steam

about break-even

Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

2 396.54 ₽ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Night

Factory New

3 855.84 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Grassland

Factory New

1 673.44 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Gunsmoke

Factory New

1 080.23 ₽ 7.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +111.25 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +968.13 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Mirage Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build