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The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +617.99₽

Invest 858.34₽

Average return 1 476.33₽

ROI +72.0%

Chance of profit 98%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 174.24₽ · profit at most −697.91₽ (at most -32.1%) · chance of profit at most 25%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 69.95 → 151.09 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) × 8 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 744.72 → 1928.82 ₽

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 43.67 → 94.33 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −373 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection

+617.99 ₽ +72.0% chance of profit 98%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) · 2 597.07 ₽ · chance 2.5%

profit on prices without salesat least −373 ₽

1× StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641
8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
1× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+8 275.80 ₽ +370.2% chance of profit 48%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 10%

profit on prices without salesat least −2 120 ₽

7× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
3× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0838

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+7 395.47 ₽ +197.5% chance of profit 36%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 272 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0846

Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+7 351.78 ₽ +194.4% chance of profit 36%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 346 ₽

1× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0857

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+5 680.33 ₽ +307.2% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 6.7%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 433 ₽

8× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
2× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+686.94 ₽ +51.3% chance of profit 50%

expensive: StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) · 5 652.17 ₽ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −935 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0750
3× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
6× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0750

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

69.95 ₽

at 69.95

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

744.72 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

43.67 ₽

at 43.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 858.34 ₽ +617.99 (+72.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −660 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

372.36 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

333.60 ₽

at 83.40

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

261.54 ₽

at 130.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 967.50 ₽ +478.80 (+49.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −833 ₽

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

93.09 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

417.00 ₽

at 83.40

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

523.08 ₽

at 130.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 033.17 ₽ +395.11 (+38.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −422 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

744.72 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1665

43.67 ₽

at 43.67

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

83.40 ₽

at 83.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 871.79 ₽ +598.54 (+68.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −529 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

558.54 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

87.34 ₽

at 43.67

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

261.54 ₽

at 130.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 907.42 ₽ +550.89 (+60.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 75%
Losing outcome 2%
About break-even 22%

in profit

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant

Minimal Wear

1 754.01 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat

Factory New

2 669.17 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse

Minimal Wear

1 393.31 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian

Factory New

1 002.28 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

2 986.63 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

1 403.04 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

758.99 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

1 393.80 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +342.28 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +614.79 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1737310 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 613.55₽ · invest 893.45₽
profit on prices without salesat least −280 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Deep Relief (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 1739357 · The Phoenix Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 608.52₽ · invest 883.37₽
profit on prices without salesat least −401 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 1732648 · The Genesis Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 602.71₽ · invest 837.67₽
profit on prices without salesat least −344 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 1730293 · The Gallery Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 599.30₽ · invest 847.92₽
profit on prices without salesat least −303 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Hypnosis (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 1739039 · The Phoenix Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 596.35₽ · invest 849.14₽
profit on prices without salesat least −352 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)
Craft 1720840 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 593.63₽ · invest 836.34₽
profit on prices without salesat least −272 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166652 instead of 0.164100; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075792 instead of 0.074904
Craft 1733333 · The Glove Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 583.47₽ · invest 859.99₽
profit on prices without salesat least −359 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP9 | Sand Scale (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163733 instead of 0.164100; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074776 instead of 0.074904
Craft 1727614 · The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 569.85₽ · invest 852.45₽
profit on prices without salesat least −322 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build