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The Phoenix Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +135.39$

Invest 167.51$

Average return 302.90$

ROI +80.8%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 416.49$ · profit at most −113.59$ (at most -27.3%) · chance of profit at most 45%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Antique (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 11.87 → 25.65 $

SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 17.74 → 39.22 $

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 137.89 → 351.63 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −157 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

+135.39 $ +80.8% chance of profit 45%

expensive: AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) · 541.92 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −157 $

1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
2× SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635
7× SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1635

Variant 2 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection

+32.20 $ +45.0% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 118.83 $ · chance 40%

sells slowly

2× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752

Variant 3 The Revolution Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection

+27.73 $ +39.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 116.16 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
1× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 4 The Recoil Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection

+14.28 $ +20.7% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 116.16 $ · chance 5.0%

rare inputs

1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0047
4× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0753
5× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0753

Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection

+11.96 $ +13.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 116.16 $ · chance 10%

rare inputs

2× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046
8× G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1652

Variant 6 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+7.88 $ +11.8% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) · 141.86 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
7× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
2× MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

11.87 $

at 11.87

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

17.74 $

at 8.87

Steam

×7

SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

137.89 $

at 19.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 167.51 $ +135.39 (+80.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −19 $

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

P90 | Trigon

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1704

32.04 $

at 10.68

Steam

×6

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

71.25 $

at 11.87

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1704

8.87 $

at 8.87

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 112.16 $ +13.22 (+11.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −56 $

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

71.25 $

at 11.87

Steam

×3

SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1702

26.62 $

at 8.87

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1702

19.70 $

at 19.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 117.56 $ +74.38 (+63.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −121 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

35.62 $

at 11.87

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1683

17.74 $

at 8.87

Steam

×5

SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1683

98.49 $

at 19.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 151.86 $ +106.66 (+70.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −28 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

P90 | Trigon

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1672

21.36 $

at 10.68

Steam

×6

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

71.25 $

at 11.87

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1672

17.74 $

at 8.87

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 110.35 $ +37.22 (+33.7%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

AWP | Containment Breach

Factory New

623.21 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Stalker

Factory New

124.50 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

AUG | Chameleon

Factory New

103.74 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

AWP | Asiimov

Field-Tested

133.59 $ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +49.32 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +110.23 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Shattered Web Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1740031 · The Prisma Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 147.34$ · invest 162.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −163 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161899 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161899 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1741401 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 142.03$ · invest 166.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −162 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162549 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162549 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1732210 · The Gamma Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 139.39$ · invest 172.14$
profit on prices without salesat least −165 $ float out of reach rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163849 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163849 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1735665 · The Huntsman Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 138.72$ · invest 193.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −190 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163902 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163902 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1736432 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 137.52$ · invest 164.05$
profit on prices without salesat least −155 $ rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164023 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164023 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1729657 · The Fracture Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 136.38$ · invest 162.76$
profit on prices without salesat least −156 $ float out of reach rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163902 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163902 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1718004 · The CS20 Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 135.57$ · invest 168.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −165 $ rare inputs

P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163960 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163960 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1740732 · The Recoil Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 134.97$ · invest 165.71$
profit on prices without salesat least −158 $ rare inputs

P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164039 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164039 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1741091 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 134.92$ · invest 167.35$
profit on prices without salesat least −158 $ rare inputs

AWP | Duality (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164082 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164082 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1723067 · The Clutch Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 134.32$ · invest 167.07$
profit on prices without salesat least −163 $ rare inputs

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164001 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164001 instead of 0.163592
Craft 1716957 · The Breakout Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 133.44$ · invest 182.65$
profit on prices without salesat least −172 $ rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New)
Craft 1742231 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 132.69$ · invest 174.25$
profit on prices without salesat least −160 $ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163953 instead of 0.163592; SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163953 instead of 0.163592

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build