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The Phoenix Collection + The Snakebite Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +11.64$

Invest 64.14$

Average return 75.78$

ROI +18.2%

Chance of profit 55%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 159.09$ · profit at most −83.30$ (at most -52.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Antique (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 11.87 → 25.65 $

MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 4.47 → 9.65 $

XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) × 8 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 47.79 → 123.79 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Snakebite Collection

+11.64 $ +18.2% chance of profit 55%

expensive: AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 116.16 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
1× MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1722
8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0777

Variant 2 The Revolution Collection instead of The Snakebite Collection

+27.73 $ +39.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) · 116.16 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Antique (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
1× AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
8× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 3 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+26.80 $ +31.5% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) · 169.60 $ · chance 10%

sells slowly

8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
2× CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 4 only The Snakebite Collection

+23.89 $ +29.9% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 118.83 $ · chance 50%

sells slowly

8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771
2× XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+18.58 $ +28.4% chance of profit 55%

expensive: M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) · 247.53 $ · chance 5.0%

sells slowly

9× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
1× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1633

Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+16.68 $ +19.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 118.83 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

7× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756
2× XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0049
1× P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 10% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

11.87 $

at 11.87

Steam

×1

MP9 | Food Chain

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1722

4.47 $

at 4.47

Steam

×8

XM1014 | XOXO

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

47.79 $

at 5.97

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 64.14 $ +11.64 (+18.2%)

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

23.75 $

at 11.87

Steam

×2

MP9 | Food Chain

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1688

8.93 $

at 4.47

Steam

×6

XM1014 | XOXO

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

35.85 $

at 5.97

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 68.53 $ +10.30 (+15.0%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

P90 | Trigon

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1671

10.68 $

at 10.68

Steam

×5

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

59.37 $

at 11.87

Steam

×4

MP9 | Food Chain

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1671

17.87 $

at 4.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 87.92 $ +3.09 (+3.5%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

35.62 $

at 11.87

Steam

×3

MP9 | Food Chain

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1664

13.40 $

at 4.47

Steam

×4

XM1014 | XOXO

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

23.90 $

at 5.97

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 72.92 $ +8.95 (+12.3%)

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

47.50 $

at 11.87

Steam

×4

MP9 | Food Chain

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

17.87 $

at 4.47

Steam

×2

XM1014 | XOXO

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

11.95 $

at 5.97

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 77.31 $ +7.60 (+9.8%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

102.28 $ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

USP-S | The Traitor

Minimal Wear

65.01 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

AUG | Chameleon

Factory New

103.74 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AWP | Asiimov

Field-Tested

133.59 $ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -0.81 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +8.09 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Snakebite Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1729681 · The Fracture Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 12.64$ · invest 59.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171865 instead of 0.172296; XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077605 instead of 0.077755
Craft 1741426 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 11.82$ · invest 63.27$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168138 instead of 0.172296; XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076309 instead of 0.077755
Craft 1729682 · The Fracture Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 11.45$ · invest 59.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of Nova | Antique (Factory New); MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested): float at most 0.174221 instead of 0.172296; XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078424 instead of 0.077755

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Snakebite Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

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How to build