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The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +604.75₽

Invest 940.88₽

Average return 1 545.63₽

ROI +64.3%

Chance of profit 75%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 426.07₽ · profit at most −880.44₽ (at most -36.3%) · chance of profit at most 5%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) × 9 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 837.81 → 2203.44 ₽

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 103.07 → 222.63 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −354 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+604.75 ₽ +64.3% chance of profit 75%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) · 3 931.63 ₽ · chance 2.5%

profit on prices without salesat least −354 ₽

9× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
1× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+7 395.47 ₽ +197.5% chance of profit 36%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 272 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0846

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+7 380.34 ₽ +193.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 285 ₽

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+5 680.33 ₽ +307.2% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 6.7%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 433 ₽

8× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
2× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+4 296.61 ₽ +23.2% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 46 304.35 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −18 187 ₽

2× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
1 more

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

+687.34 ₽ +43.2% chance of profit 35%

expensive: StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) · 5 652.17 ₽ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −924 ₽

4× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
6× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

837.81 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

103.07 ₽

at 103.07

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 940.88 ₽ +604.75 (+64.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −458 ₽

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1650

49.26 ₽

at 49.26

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1650

103.07 ₽

at 103.07

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

1 418.64 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 570.97 ₽ +480.94 (+30.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −372 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1629

209.85 ₽

at 69.95

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

465.45 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

171.50 ₽

at 171.50

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

177.33 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 024.13 ₽ +584.78 (+57.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −437 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1626

139.90 ₽

at 69.95

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1626

103.07 ₽

at 103.07

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

1 241.31 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 484.28 ₽ +504.35 (+34.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −404 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1620

279.80 ₽

at 69.95

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

93.09 ₽

at 93.09

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

171.50 ₽

at 171.50

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

709.32 ₽

at 177.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 253.71 ₽ +545.06 (+43.5%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 75%
Losing outcome 25%

in profit

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant

Minimal Wear

1 754.01 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat

Factory New

2 669.17 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse

Minimal Wear

1 393.31 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian

Factory New

1 002.28 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

900.00 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

3 079.01 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

4 521.38 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

1 229.52 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +320.41 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +595.23 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1738063 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 660.44₽ · invest 958.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −462 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076072 instead of 0.074559
Craft 1739194 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 647.77₽ · invest 907.81₽
profit on prices without salesat least −439 ₽ rare inputs

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076741 instead of 0.074559

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build