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The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +1 578.36₽

Invest 3 047.11₽

Average return 4 625.47₽

ROI +51.8%

Chance of profit 33%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 7 893.06₽ · profit at most −3 267.59₽ (at most -41.4%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) × 9 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 2790.00 → 7337.70 ₽

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 257.11 → 555.36 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+1 578.36 ₽ +51.8% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
1× Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+2 230.19 ₽ +43.6% chance of profit 93%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 3.3%

sells slowly

1× USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0761

Variant 3 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 920.50 ₽ +66.0% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616

Variant 4 only The Phoenix Collection

+1 909.54 ₽ +64.8% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 33%

sells slowly

2× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646
8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646

Variant 5 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 802.55 ₽ +64.6% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1642
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1642
1× M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043

Variant 6 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 793.30 ₽ +64.7% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%

sells slowly

3× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
6× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1651
1× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0046

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

FAMAS | Sergeant

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

2 790.00 ₽

at 310.00

Steam

×1

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

257.11 ₽

at 257.11

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 047.11 ₽ +1 578.36 (+51.8%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 67%
About break-even 3%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Redline

Minimal Wear

14 598.37 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Nova | Antique

Factory New

1 017.17 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Trigon

Minimal Wear

1 132.49 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

P250 | Cartel

Factory New

3 551.86 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

2 827.56 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

2 467.06 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 060.24 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 498.47 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1720849 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 1 567.20₽ · invest 2 970.64₽
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build