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The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +777.51₽

Invest 1 491.84₽

Average return 2 269.35₽

ROI +52.1%

Chance of profit 48%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 805.66₽ · profit at most −1 536.31₽ (at most -40.4%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 48.68 → 105.15 ₽

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 86.68 → 187.23 ₽

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 8 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 1356.48 → 3513.28 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −637 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+777.51 ₽ +52.1% chance of profit 48%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 6 288.88 ₽ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −637 ₽

1× XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+486.75 ₽ +58.6% chance of profit 92%

expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%

rare inputs

1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765

Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 582.69 ₽ +168.1% chance of profit 30%

expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 557 ₽

1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+2 433.18 ₽ +74.6% chance of profit 70%

expensive: Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 9 803.48 ₽ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 019 ₽

3× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

+1 839.58 ₽ +74.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 371 ₽

1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 751.51 ₽ +72.8% chance of profit 36%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 15 660.06 ₽ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 302 ₽

1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0857

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

48.68 ₽

at 48.68

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

86.68 ₽

at 86.68

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1 356.48 ₽

at 169.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 491.84 ₽ +777.51 (+52.1%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 52%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

858.36 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

7 232.21 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

2 494.55 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

603.94 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

1 970.27 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

617.65 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

466.76 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

633.92 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +273.35 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +513.73 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1731645 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 802.68₽ · invest 1 481.94₽
profit on prices without salesat least −612 ₽ rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1742951 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 801.69₽ · invest 1 524.93₽
profit on prices without salesat least −613 ₽ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1740183 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 796.79₽ · invest 1 481.49₽
profit on prices without salesat least −625 ₽ rare inputs

MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162222 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074251 instead of 0.074106
Craft 1704835 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 796.18₽ · invest 1 505.16₽
profit on prices without salesat least −619 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163661 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074751 instead of 0.074106
Craft 1712363 · The Arabesque Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 795.48₽ · invest 1 519.89₽
profit on prices without salesat least −620 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1742898 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 780.20₽ · invest 1 485.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −685 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1743099 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 776.63₽ · invest 1 568.28₽
profit on prices without salesat least −707 ₽ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1743025 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 765.69₽ · invest 1 520.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −649 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1730794 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 764.86₽ · invest 1 478.62₽
profit on prices without salesat least −655 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1733035 · The Genesis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 764.20₽ · invest 1 465.09₽
profit on prices without salesat least −651 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1725638 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 763.80₽ · invest 1 465.61₽
profit on prices without salesat least −651 ₽ rare inputs

M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1728932 · The Fever Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 751.16₽ · invest 1 458.33₽
profit on prices without salesat least −664 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1720094 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 749.63₽ · invest 1 472.73₽
profit on prices without salesat least −665 ₽ rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165242 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075301 instead of 0.074106
Craft 1724659 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 742.39₽ · invest 1 470.84₽
profit on prices without salesat least −676 ₽ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165531 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075402 instead of 0.074106
Craft 1734165 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 729.44₽ · invest 1 545.11₽
profit on prices without salesat least −686 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.074106

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build